This report assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy by 2050 on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets in 2020. The analyses are based on simulations of a reference scenario and a nuclear phase out scenario with the global energy systems model POLES. The phase-out of nuclear power decreases the global share of nuclear energy from 12 % to 8 % and increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally. In Annex I countries GHG emissions rise by 7 %, emissions in the EU decrease slightly by less than 1 %. Two policy scenarios – an Annex I “all trade” scenario and a “KP 2 Parties only” scenario – have been modelled and show the following results: Compared to a reference scenario, the price of certificates increases by 24% and total compliance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%, if trading of emissions certificates is not restricted (all trade scenario) in an international climate policy regime. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). In contrast, a restricted trading of emission certificates results in a lower demand and in lower certificate prices. When trading of certificates is available only to coun-tries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a substantial increase of the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia) than in the all trade scenario. The analyses show a moderate increase of costs for more ambitions mitigation policies compared to BAU mitigation policies, in particular if a nuclear phase out is implemented. Finally, the findings also highlight the importance of certificate trading to achieving climate targets in a cost-efficient way, provided that ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation pursued.
Climate Change | 11/2015
Vicki Duscha, Katja Schumacher, Joachim Schleich, Sean Healy
3710 41 132
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