Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe | Umweltbundesamt

- Abflussverhältnisse (von Oberflächengewässern)

“Results of this work indicate strong model agreement in the projected change of average inflow and runoff in the European river network. By the end of the century, both mean annual precipitation and average discharge are projected to decrease in southern Europe and to increase in north-eastern Europe, while in central Europe the ensemble of projections does not agree on a specific trend. Projected changes in extreme values are on average less significant and show different spatial patterns for precipitation and discharge. […]As a result, we found a reduction of peak discharges in southern Spain, Scandinavia and Baltic countries, while a large portion of central Europe including the British Isles are likely to experience a progressive increase in the magnitude and frequency of discharge peaks.” (S. 2257)

“Interestingly, the expected annual frequency of events with peak discharge above the 100- year return period is projected to rise significantly in most of the considered European countries, including some where the overall number of severe events (i.e. larger than Q2) is likely to decrease. The projected figures are unsettling, showing significant increase in the frequency of extreme events larger than 100 % in 21 out of 37 European countries since the first time slice (2006–2035), and a further deterioration in the subsequent future. These findings relate to a range of event magnitude mostly above the average protection level of European rivers, hence they have serious implications on the associated flood risk and the potential impact on business and society.“ (S. 2258)