The results of COP30 are disappointing and reflect the complex geopolitical situation that prevented substantial progress. The proposed roadmap for a global phase-out of coal, oil and gas failed due to a strong opposition. Despite immense differences, many smaller decisions and successes were achieved.
Every five years, the Parties to the Paris Agreement are called to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). The new round of NDCs is due in 2025. With the NDCs submitted by mid-2024, the world is heading for a global warming of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees by the end of the century. At COP28, Parties agreed that the new NDCs should be aligned with the 1.5 degrees climate target.
As part of an in-house research project, UBA is working on the use and further development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) developed by the independent research institute IIASA. IAMs combine economic, social and ecological aspects for the development of climate action scenarios and are central to the IPCC process. The cooperation between UBA and IIASA is now official.
The Global Stocktake assesses the collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement every five years. The first Global Stocktake concluded in 2023 with a decision at COP28 on the way forward to increase action and support to effectively address climate change.
Parties to the Paris Agreement are updating their plans for climate action. Less than half of the countries analysed as part of a project funded by the German Environment Agency are increasing their ambition. Many are lacking a clear plan for implementation. This is the result of a new methodology, which analyses 20 recently submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
A research project for the German Environment Agency developed a method for the systematic analysis of the design of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of Parties to the Paris Agreement. As part of this project, the design of 20 NDCs were analysed with this method.
The international community resolved to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. The mitigation activities proposed by the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will not be enough to achieve that goal. An UBA report shows how the gap can be narrowed even before 2020, for example with more efficient electrical appliances and through renewable energy support.
It is only recently that air conditioning has become relatively common in German buildings. The high standard of living has ramped up expectations concerning comfort and convenience in the home and particularly at the workplace, and this in turn has increased energy demand. The refrigerants used in more than 95 percent of Germany’s air conditioners strongly affect the climate.
