international climate policy

The Paris Agreement was adopted at the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21) in December 2015 in Paris and entered into force in November 2016. The Parties agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C compared with pre-industrial levels.

The results of COP30 are disappointing and reflect the complex geopolitical situation that prevented substantial progress. The proposed roadmap for a global phase-out of coal, oil and gas failed due to a strong opposition. Despite immense differences, many smaller decisions and successes were achieved.

Every five years the Parties to the Paris Agreement have to submit new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC). In 2023 Parties agreed that the new NDCs should be aligned with the 1.5 degrees climate target. However, with the NDCs submitted in 2025, the world is heading for a global warming of 2.3 to 2.5 degrees by the end of the century.

As part of an in-house research project, UBA is working on the use and further development of an integrated assessment model (IAM) developed by the independent research institute IIASA. IAMs combine economic, social and ecological aspects for the development of climate action scenarios and are central to the IPCC process. The cooperation between UBA and IIASA is now official.

The Global Stocktake assesses the collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement every five years. The first Global Stocktake concluded in 2023 with a decision at COP28 on the way forward to increase action and support to effectively address climate change.

Parties to the Paris Agreement are updating their plans for climate action. Less than half of the countries analysed as part of a project funded by the German Environment Agency are increasing their ambition. Many are lacking a clear plan for implementation. This is the result of a new methodology, which analyses 20 recently submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The international community resolved to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius. The mitigation activities proposed by the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will not be enough to achieve that goal. An UBA report shows how the gap can be narrowed even before 2020, for example with more efficient electrical appliances and through renewable energy support.