Risks and potential for adaptation

1. All living beings and systems in Germany are affected by climate change, but there are spatial and temporal differences.

2. Climate change threatens natural systems, resources and future generations, in particular. To prevent cascading effects, we must protect these systems.

3. Germany (still) has many options for adaptation. As climate change progresses, additional and, in some cases, more far-reaching adaptation is increasingly necessary. Some risks can be contained only through intensive climate protection.

4. Only immediate action can effectively reduce high climate risks. This is because many responses take several decades to become effective.

Picture gallery: The relationships between climate impacts

Impact chain: "Lack of water in the soil"

How are the effects of climate change related? The negative consequences of climate change in one action field often lead to impacts in others due to so-called cascading effects.
Pictures: linaberlin (1), ColiN00B (2), anaterate (3), Lars_Nissen (4) / Pixabay

Source: KWRA 2021

Interactions between the action fields

The KWRA examined the interactions between climate impacts in 13 action fields of the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS). For example, the impacts in the action field of water management that affect other areas are shown blue; those related to soil are displayed in brown.

Source: KWRA 2021

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Interactions between the system areas

The cascading effects usually begin with climate impacts on natural systems and resources (e.g. water, soil, species) and have an effect on economic systems that use nature, such as agriculture and forestry, as well as on buildings. They end up having a negative impact on human health and economic systems remote from nature, such as trade. It is necessary to intensify adaptation, particularly at the start of the impact chain. The size of the circles represents the proportion of climate risks rated as high in all the climate impacts in the system area. The thickness of the arrows corresponds to the number of effects one system area has on the other areas.

Source: KWRA 2021

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The KWRA confirms that Germany is affected nationwide by climate change and that this impact will intensify in the future. However, the specific effects differ spatially. So-called climatic hotspot maps reveal areas in Germany that are particularly affected by climate change.

Climate hotspots for Germany

The graphic illustrates Germany’s climatic hotspots: maps of extreme values show regions that could be affected by a particularly large number of climatic extremes. Maps of changes show regions with potentially strong changes in climate parameters. The colours illustrate the strength of the impacts: 100% represents maximum impact in a region.
Map basis: © GeoBasis-DE / BKG (2020), © EuroGeographics, Deutscher Wetterdienst, © European Union

Source: KWRA 2021

The climatic hotspot maps show that, as climate change progresses, more extremes are expected to occur – particularly in the east and south-west of Germany. Particularly strong climatic changes in relation to the current situation can occur in the south and west of Germany and in the mountains. In the future, there is a greater risk in the coastal regions due to the accelerated rise in sea levels. Water bodies and their surroundings will be more severely affected by flood and low water events. In the event of severe climate change, the high level of impact will spread to the whole of Germany by the end of the century.

Picture gallery: Climate area types and climate analogies

Climate area types and average change in selected climate parameters towards the middle of the cent.

Climate area types show regions of Germany with similar climatic conditions. A statistical evaluation of the spatial pattern was used to determine seven types of climate areas. The graphic also shows how the climate in the respective region will change in the future with regard to specific climate indicators, and where major changes will occur.
Map basis: © GeoBasis-DE / BKG (2020), © EuroGeographics, Deutscher Wetterdienst, © European Union, Eurac Research

Source: KWRA 2021

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Climate analogies of German cities

Climate analogies compare the future climate of German cities to other climate areas in Europe from 1961-1990. The climate in Berlin today is already similar to the climate in Karlsruhe earlier and could - in case of climate change without climate protection - be similar to the previous climatic conditions near Lyon by the middle of the century. At the end of the century, Berlin could have a climate like that of the Italian Adriatic near Ancona.

Source: KWRA 2021

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The participating German authorities and experts evaluated the level of climate risk for the 102 climate impacts and 13 action fields of the German adaptation strategy (DAS). The KWRA makes clear that many areas of life are already affected by climate change. In the future, the climate risks can increase significantly – especially if no climate protection or adaptation measures are taken.

Natural systems and resources such as soil, water, species and ecosystems face particular threats. They are the foundations of many other systems, such as fishing, agriculture, forestry, and water management, not to mention many forms of human recreation. To prevent negative cascading effects on economic systems and human health and enable sustainability, it is critical that we protect natural systems and resources.

High climate risks are expected, for example, due to the shifting of cultivation regions, the appearance of new pests, damages to ecosystems such as forests and moors, or heat stress in humans.

Overview of climate risks without adaptation in the action fields

The graphic shows the climate risks for each action field. It displays the risks without further adaptation for the present (left) alongside the risks for the middle of the century (middle) and for the end of the century (right). The risk was examined in two future scenarios, i.e. weaker and stronger climate change.

Source: KWRA 2021

On the basis of the climate risk and adaptation period, the KWRA identifies 31 climate impacts that have a very urgent need for action. They can be assigned to the following key challenges:

• Health risks from heat, especially in urban areas near the Rhine and Spree.
• Risks from drought and low water (often combined with heat) for all water-using and water-dependent systems. Here, rural regions are particularly affected, primarily in the dry regions in the east and in the western centre of Germany.
• Risks from heavy rain, flash floods and flooding for infrastructures and buildings, especially along bodies of water. Settlements in narrow valleys in the low mountain range show a significantly higher risk.
• Risks from the gradual rise in temperature and sea level for natural systems and systems that use nature.

Four central challenges for adapting to climate change in Germany

Source: Adelphi

The evaluation of the adaptation options shows the degree to which we can reduce individual risks through adaptation. The KWRA makes a distinction between APAIII+ measures and more far-reaching adaptation action (APAIII+ refers to the federal government’s current action plan, APA III). More far-reaching adaptation goes beyond the APAIII+ measures, but can also be used under today’s conditions. The APAIII+ measures can reduce the climate risks – at least in some instances – but only slightly. In the pessimistic case, i.e. with stronger climate change, more far-reaching adaptation is required to significantly reduce the climate risks.

In addition, there are climate risks where adaptation is already reaching its absolute limits in the present and near future and where high climate risks can only be avoided through climate protection – for example the effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems.

Climate risks with adaptation in the action fields

The graphic shows the climate risks in the action fields with and without adaptation for the middle of the century. It presents the risks without adaptation (left) next to the risks with adaptation, through APAIII+ measures (centre) and through more far-reaching adaptation (right). The climate risk with adaptation was examined for the case of weaker and stronger climate change.

Source: KWRA 2021

The results of the KWRA make it clear:

1. Many climate risks can be significantly reduced in Germany through adaptation, but in the event of severe climate change, the climate risks can only be sufficiently mitigated through more far-reaching action. Climate protection is the basis for effective adaptation, and in some cases the only way to reduce risks.
2. Climate adaptation takes time. Many high climate risks require an adaptation period of several decades, some even more than 50 years (e.g. forest conversion). To prepare Germany for severe climate change, early action is necessary.
3. The greatest and most urgent need for action relates to natural systems and resources. On the one hand, they are exposed to particularly high climate risks and, on the other hand, they have comparatively little potential for adaptation. For these reasons, sustainable management and a reduction in the pollution of natural systems and resources are the main starting points for adaptation.

The Climate Impact and Risk Assessment 2021 (KWRA) was commissioned by the federal government as part of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS). The results of the KWRA serve as a foundation for the improvement of the DAS and the development of future adaptation action. In this way, the KWRA supports the formulation of concrete adaptation action in the next Adaptation Action Plan (APA IV).

The KWRA 2021 represents the most comprehensive analysis of the risks and impacts of climate change in Germany. It is a systematic, cross-sectoral analysis and assessment of the effects of climate change and answers the following questions:

1. How will climate change affect the environment, our livelihoods, our health, our everyday lives and our economy?
2. Where can we reduce the risks of climate change through adaptation?
3. What areas require urgent action?

The KWRA identifies urgent needs for action by identifying high climate risks and analysing the adaptive capacity and the adaptation period. To this end, a scientific consortium, together with 180 experts from 25 federal authorities and other institutions, analysed 102 climate impacts in 13 action fields. Building on this, the network of authorities assessed the respective climate risk in relation to the present, the two future periods of mid-century (2031-2060) and the end of the century (2071-2100). The KWRA considers a pessimistic case (stronger climate change) and an optimistic case (weaker climate change). The study relied on climate projection data from the German Weather Service. These data are based on the modelling of different greenhouse gas-concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The KWRA used the projections of the climate scenario RCP8.5, which is the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that has the highest greenhouse gas concentrations. The project also analysed the interactions between the individual climate impacts and susceptible systems and identified cascading effects. The methodology of the KWRA is based on the analysis of climate impact chains and ISO 14091. Based on this, methodical recommendations for action were developed for municipalities.

The methodology of the KWRA 2021 was significantly refined compared to that of the analysis from 2015. The study took more climate impacts into account. The results confirm the 2015 analysis, but make clear that many climate risks have increased.

Picture gallery: KWRA methodology

Projected change in average air temperature in Germany

The graphic shows the projected change in average air temperature in Germany for the various climate scenarios (from the present to 2100) based on regional climate model data. Further information on the development of the climate in Germany can be found in the national climate report and in the DWD’s climate atlas.

Source: German Weather Service (DWD)

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Methodological approach and key concepts of the KWRA 2021 without adaptation

Where possible, the climate projections of the RCP8.5 climate scenario were combined with socio-economic projections (up to the year 2045, e.g. population growth, urbanisation) in order to assess future climate impacts. The climate impacts were analysed as the result of changing climate impacts on affected systems, their spatial exposure and sensitivity. The associated climate risk was assessed for the present and the two future periods of the middle of the century (2031-2060) and the end of the century (2071-2100).

Source: KWRA 2021

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Different scenarios in the KWRA

For the future periods of the middle and end of the century, the KWRA 2021 analysed a pessimistic case (stronger climate change; increase in the annual mean temperature in Germany by +3° C in the middle of the century compared to the early industrial period) and an optimistic case (weaker climate change; increase the annual mean temperature by + 2.4° C by the middle of the century).

Source: Adelphi

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Methodological framework and key concepts of the KWRA 2021 with adaptation

After assessing the climate risks, the study analysed and evaluated selected climate impacts with high climate risks to determine the extent to which adaptation can reduce the climate risk and the period of time required to achieve that reduction. Through the consideration of the climate risk along with the adaptation period, the KWRA was able to determine the particularly urgent needs for action.

Source: KWRA 2021

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Cover pages of the 2015 vulnerability analysis and the summary of KWRA 2021

The results of the KWRA 2021 are comparable to those of the vulnerability analysis from 2015 (the predecessor to the KWRA). This indicates the robustness of the foundational methodology.

Source: Umweltbundesamt

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