Navigating abrupt system changes

Blogpost by Prof. Dr. Ilona M. Otto 

Irrespective of the health issues, the coronavirus pandemic that we are currently experiencing demonstrates that rapid and radical responses of governments and business, as well as rapid lifestyle changes, are possible. Suddenly, we’ve found we are able to adjust personal habits and routines (e.g. not shaking hands), change travel plans (e.g. give up on holidays abroad), and adjust business practices (e.g. move meetings online, allow working from home).  Have these actions affected GDP growth and generated economic costs? Yes, of course! Is it a problem? There are concerns, but the majority of citizens and media perceives such changes as necessary, and even desired, in order to reduce the risks.

In this context, I am asking myself what went wrong with climate action? We have now had over 30 years of international negotiations and government conferences, accompanied by NGO involvement, large levels of funds transferred to all kind of programs and actions all around the world, numerous citizen and youth protests, and the production of terabytes of data and thousands of scientific papers. Have these actions managed to push the World-Earth System onto a new sustainability trajectory? The answer is “no” and, to date, the only time global greenhouse gas emissions have actually substantially reduced is as an unintended result of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown measures. Some sources report global greenhouse gas emissions plunged by as much as 17% in April. This is the largest decline since WW2. However, without massive structural changes, the emissions are expected to rise again as soon as the lockdown measures are released. Experts warn we have only six months to change the course of the climate crisis and prevent a post-lockdown rebound effect.  

There are five important points that I want to make here:

1. Non-linear changes in human societies are possible and observed. Sometimes the pace of change increases and this can be devastating, leading to crises and wars, but these dynamics can also be imperfectly controlled and navigated. Catastrophes might act as “windows of opportunity” that force us to change our mental models and motivate engagement in reflective processes that might lead to sharp breaks from the existing procedures and policies. In my recent study published in PNAS my co-authors I discuss how contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviours, and social norms could lead to a structural reorganization at the whole system level. However, commonly used models in economics, as well as Integrated Assessment Models, are unable to either reproduce or estimate the likelihood of such non-linear dynamics. Economics in general, and resource economics in particular, need better theory and tools.
2. Radical and rapid government and organizational responses are possible. We need politicians and global leaders, who have the courage to set and follow ambitious targets, to address the challenges global societies are dealing with. It is important that such global vision and targets are based on science and ethical principles and their achievement is supported by scientific tools and methods.     
3. Risk perception is very important. Global society sometimes behaves like a herd, but often people come together, cooperate, and support each other. This happens particularly if the perceived risk is high, if people feel they have agency in the system, and they feel their choices matter. Fear, however, can lead to destruction and panic. More research is needed into what makes us perceive some risks as being more tangible than others, and how this knowledge could be used in addressing global environmental problems.
4. Due to the connectivity and complexity of global systems, the likelihood of pandemics or other crises cascading through global trade networks, financial systems, or patterns of human mobility is high. In addition, global crises of varying natures are likely to become more frequent in the future and many of them are likely to be driven by ecological pressures including climate change. Society has to learn how to cope with systemic risks and uncertainties or perhaps we need to understand how to restructure and rewrite our global society to make it more resilient to future shocks. Many governments have announced massive post-coronavirus recovery subsidies. The International Energy Agency estimates these might reach $9tn. Such funds should be spent very wisely and support projects, infrastructure development, and business activities that increase the long-term resilience of our human civilization. This can be achieved only if we respect planetary boundaries. We currently have a unique opportunity which we should not waste.
5. We cannot afford to shy away from global inequalities. Resilient societies are societies that create and maintain public goods including a health care system accessible to everyone, and an education system that provides equal opportunities for children and young people. Crises tend to hit the underprivileged harder than other social groups. Social tensions and dissatisfaction cascade to all spheres of life and extend beyond national borders. Populist and nationalist movements capitalize on these tendencies and feed on them. Global inequalities have been constantly rising over the last 30 years and in many cases the wealth and privileges of the few were created at the expense of the environment and the weakest social groups. This trend must be reversed and governments must undertake substantial tax reforms, and improve redistributive and natural resource management policies.

Finally, we need a paradigm change in economics and social sciences in general. New approaches that would go beyond the rational choice and equilibrium paradigms are needed. They should be able to explain and demonstrate system evolution pathways, system transitions, tipping points, and tipping interventions. They should include human agents who operate under the conditions of resource scarcity, information cacophony, and conflicting interests, and take decisions in the presence of high risk and uncertainty. Undergoing a global sustainability transformation in the next 20 years is possible. However, all those who are concerned with it will need to become active change agents and recognize the agency that they have in their political decisions and everyday choices. We shape the system we live in through our voting decisions, by questioning and changing unsustainable routines and rules at work, in our neighbourhoods, friendship groups, and finally in our households.  This system is not static but is constantly evolving as a result of our choices. Complex systems, such as our planet and the behavior of the people living in it, cannot be fully controlled and predicted. However, we have scientific tools and methods that can be used to estimate the likelihood of reaching certain outcomes under certain conditions. We also have the scientific tools and methods that can help us to understand the interventions that can increase the likelihood of reaching certain desired outcomes.  This knowledge should be used to navigate the evolution of our human civilization and supporting it planetary ecosystem.  

Parts of this text have been published in the Summer 2020 Issue of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

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Author:
Prof. Dr. Ilona M. Otto is a newly appointed Professor in Societal Impacts of Climate Change at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz. She leads a research group working on Social Complexity and System Transformation. The group’s ambition is to use complex science theory and novel research methods to analyse social dynamic processes and interventions that are likely to spark rapid social changes necessary to radically transform the interactions of human societies with nature and ecosystem services in the next 30 years. The last ten years she spent at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and she is still involved in coordinating two international projects there. Prof. Otto is a social scientist by training. She was born in Poland and studied in Poland, the Netherlands, Ireland, and Germany. She uses various research methods including social surveys, case studies, behavioural experiments, and simulations in analysing problems related to global environment changes, development, adaptation and sustainability.