RESCUE scenario GreenSupreme

GreenSupreme (“Germany – resource efficient and greenhouse gas neutral – Minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions and raw material consumption”) examines a faster transformation path in connection with the most effective assumption from the other scenarios with the goal to minimize cumulated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and raw materials consumption.

Scenario characteristics

In GreenSupreme, the most effective measures from the previous Green- scenarios are combined in order to further reduce GHG emissions and raw material consumption up to 2050. In a nutshell, this includes a combination of measures from GreenMe on material efficiency together with assumptions from GreenLife on sustainable and healthy lifestyles. In contrast to the other scenarios, which assume an average annual GDP growth of around 0.7 %, in GreenSupreme the annual GDP growth is assumed to be zero after 2030.

Scenario results

The scenario succeeds in reducing GHG-emissions by 97 percent by 2050 compared to 1990. If natural sinks are taken into account through sustainable agriculture and forestry (LULUCF ), reductions of up to 104 percent are possible. GHG-neutrality can thus be safely achieved in GreenSupreme without nuclear energy and technical sinks such as CCS . In total, a reduction in GHG-emissions of 69 percent in 2030 and 88 percent in 2040 compared to 1990 will be achieved (excluding LULUCF).

The final energy demand (excluding the non-energy demand of the chemical industry) can be reduced from around 2,500 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to less than 1,100 TWh by 2050. In order to achieve GHG-reductions quickly, coal-fired power generation is phased out by 2030 and coal use completely phased out by 2040.

The share of renewable energies will rise to 86 percent by 2030 and to 97 percent by 2040. Innovations in fuel supply will be promoted and technologies developed at an early stage, so that by 2030 around 63 TWh of sustainable, electricity-based fuels will already be imported. The share of renewable energies in fuel supply is already 11 percent in 2030 and 40 percent in 2040. By 2050, fossil fuels will no longer be used in all areas.

A combination of energy efficiency, material efficiency and sustainable lifestyle changes assumed in the other scenarios as well as a faster and even more ambitious restructuring of the energy system combined with a liberation from economic growth makes it possible to reduce primary raw material consumption by 70 percent by 2050 compared to 2010 in GreenSupreme.

In order for Germany to make an appropriate contribution to limiting the global rise in temperature to 1.5 °C and to come close to a globally equitable use of raw materials, major national efforts are needed in line with the GreenSupreme scenario.  

Results highlight that ambitious efforts both at national and international level, as well as enhanced international cooperation similar to the story line of the GreenSupreme scenario, are necessary in order to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, and to achieve a globally equitable use of raw materials.