Cluster Tourism industry

Germany’s tourism industry is a lucrative sector and plays an important role in Germany’s macroeconomics. In 2019 the industry – with 2.8 million employees – generated profits amounting to just under 124 billion Euros. This equates to some 4 % of Germany’s entire Gross Value Added. The proportion of employees in this industry compared to the overall number of economically active individuals in this country amounts to 6.1 %.¹⁹¹ Germany offers a wide range of tourism options in all parts of the country – from health tourism to activity holidays, nature tourism, river-based types of tourism, city and cultural vacations as well as business trips. The structure of the tourism sector is characterised by small and medium-sized businesses. It comprises accommodation and catering businesses, travel agencies, travel organisers, companies providing tour and transport services as well as operators of tourism infrastructures or centres in the fields of sports, culture, health and wellness, and notably also business trips, congresses and meetings. The German Länder, districts and municipalities are committed to tourism in their respective regions and are actively involved in the marketing of tourism ventures. Germany’s broad spectrum of touristic offerings is much in demand both among foreign visitors and, above all, among travellers and people from our own country seeking recreation.

Supply and demand in various tourism subsectors and destinations in Germany are in various degrees subject to the weather and weather patterns. Some segments of the tourist industry such as shops and the congress business – being indoor activities – are not much influenced by external conditions whereas, a concrete demand regarding an intended vacation date relating, for instance, to winter sports or outdoor bathing, is evidently more closely bound up with suitable weather patterns. Largely independent of location and type of tourism, a tourism-related infrastructure can be exposed – for reasons of climatic conditions – to increasing physical risks from extreme weather events. As a rule, the response required from the tourism industry in Germany vis-a-vis such challenges, will have to be specifically tailored to the relevant type of tourism, with due consideration of concrete impacts from climate change on the target activity.

Progressive climate change has already begun to change the meteorological conditions for tourism in Germany. As far as coastal regions at the North Sea and the Baltic Sea are concerned, conditions have been improving. In those areas – subject to strong fluctuations from year to year – the periods of time in which sea water temperatures remain comfortable enough for bathing, are becoming longer. In both of these regions, the first potential ‘bathing days’ occur earlier and earlier every year, while the last suitable days of this kind occur later and later, extending into autumn. Moreover, the average air temperatures in the summer-holiday months of June to September have been increasing (cf. Indicator TOU-I-1). Snow conditions in the ski tourism areas of Germany fluctuate significantly from year to year. To date it has not been possible in an aggregated form, to determine a statistically reliable trend for ski tourism areas in terms of the number of days on which a natural depth of snow amounting to at least 30 cm is reached. The Black Forest as well as the western and central upland regions have been experiencing extended phases of snow-poor winters. In the Alps and the eastern uplands snow-poor winters have so far been occurring just sporadically (cf. Indicator TOU-I-2).

It has so far not been possible to discern any influence of changed meteorological conditions on the market shares of wider tourism areas in respect of bed-night volumes. This observation matches the findings of a research project conducted by UBA. While it is true that current weather events can influence demand considerably both in the short term and regionally, it has so far not been possible to discern any distinct impacts from changing climate parameters on demand in tourism¹⁹². The Indicator TOU-I-3 shows increasing demand for bed-nights in urban areas at the expense of other wider tourism areas. The development in 2020 and 2021 was influenced primarily by the Covid-19 pandemic. In both years, the general decline in bed-night volumes affected urban areas in particular, in contrast with holiday regions, above all on coasts and in the Alps, which benefited from this development.

According to the findings presented by the 2021 Climate Impact and Risk Analysis (KWRA), there is a major risk for the action field ‘Tourism Industry’ – expected to develop towards the end of this century – that tourism offerings will suffer restrictions owing to lack of confidence in adequate snow cover. Likewise, it is estimated that, by the end of this century, there will be high risks of damage to tourism infrastructures and operational disruptions as well as high possibilities of risks to the commercial success of tourism providers. However, both estimates are considered to be affected by low certainty. In the run-up to the middle of this century the risks relating to these climate impacts are assessed by means of a three-tier assessment grid (low – medium – high). The same applies to the risk of impacts from great heat on health tourism and the risk of shifts in demand. As far as the two last-named climate impacts are concerned, there is some certainty regarding the assessment.

Monitoring the action field ‘Tourism industry’ is severely limited owing to a lack of available data. This is partly due to the fact that the discussion on climate change impacts on tourism frequently refers to specific segments of the tourism industry – for example nature tourism, health tourism, cycling tourism or the bathing tourism in inland areas. These segments are either not at all or just partially reflected in any available data collected on a regular basis, which is why they cannot be described quantitatively. There are data available which are collected on a regular basis for official tourism statistics at the level of municipalities, districts and travel areas or with regard to municipality groups dealing with the catering trade. Data on occupancy rates in accommodation facilities are particularly useful for a regionally differentiated description of touristic demand. However, an unequivocal attribution of municipalities, districts or travel areas to specific tourism segments or to one particular focal segment is not possible. Consequently, the available statistical data do not permit drawing any inferences regarding the development of individual tourism segments, let alone how these may have been influenced by climate change impacts. For the Indicators TOU-I-3 and TOU-R-1 the travel areas have been attributed to five major tourism areas¹⁹³, which allows making a (rather indistinct) connection, between the travel areas concerned and their natural area potentials. It should be borne in mind that, apart from circumstances prevailing in natural areas, the demarcation of travel areas also relates to the memberships maintained by the relevant municipalities, districts and counties in various tourist associations. The travel areas therefore encompass zones characterised by different touristic offers according to the degree in which they are affected by climate change; in Baden-Württemberg, for example, this applies to parts of the Upper Rhine Rift valley and parts of the Black Forest. Any interpretation of data on touristic demand (such as bed-nights) in respect of climate change impacts on the travel areas and wider tourism areas is therefore possible only to a rather limited extent.

Apart from bed-night tourism, day tourism is also of major economic importance. As far as climate change impacts are concerned, the latter is of particular interest, as for day trips the weather pattern is of crucial significance. However, in order to ascertain the relevant changes in demand, regional data on day tourism (for example in respect of occupancy rates of the tourism infrastructure) would be required in addition to the statistical data on accommodation. Unfortunately, such data are either not collected continuously or not accessible in one central database.

Travellers and people seeking rest and recreation take a multitude of factors into account in making their travel decisions. The climatic conditions and any relevant changes are therefore only one factor among many. When using data on tourism demand for the purpose of studying the impacts of climate change on tourism, one is basically faced with the difficulty of estimating the importance of the relevant climate parameters. According to current findings, their influence is at present considered to be of fairly minor importance.¹⁹⁴

Also in respect of the tourism infrastructure, climatechange related physical damage can be of importance. However, it is not possible to illustrate this scenario in a similar way to the action field ‘Building sector’ in respect of the development of insured damage, because the data do not permit any sector-related attribution. Another reason is that tourism providers, just like other businesses, tend to insure specific risks according to their particular requirements, thus not signing up to any standardised insurance products. So far there seems to have been no representative survey conducted among tourism providers – regarding physical damage – that might serve as an alternative source of information.

Also with a view to the illustration of measures, there are limitations owing to the data situation. Given the increasing occurrence of drought in past years and the associated limitations ensuing also for tourism providers, the monitoring of water use involved in tourism might provide a useful starting point. However, so far there are no specific data available in this respect. Generally speaking, the implementation of several measures – often relating to specific destinations or providers – does not facilitate any quantitative illustration. This is true, for instance, in respect of measures such as the expansion of offers that are available year-round, regardless of the weather, or the strengthening of summer tourism by introducing new touristic products or by taking measures to ensure greater climate resilience of the businesses concerned. Generally speaking, adaptation measures can certainly be made part of an integrated sustainable development of tourism businesses or destinations. So far an assessment of the existing certification schemes for tourism sustainability is possible only in a very limited way with regard to evidence of any climate adaptation efforts.

The challenges climate change entails for different tourism segments, regions and groups of players are just as wide-ranging as the opportunities for and requirements of adaptation. It is up to individual providers of tourism products and services to take precautionary measures by protecting their own real estate and infrastructures from the potential impacts of climate change. For example, buildings used for tourism purposes should conform to high standards of heat protection in summer, and any outdoor areas for the use of visitors should afford adequate shielding from the rays of the sun. Likewise, cycle paths and footpaths for the use of tourists should offer sufficient shading. Furthermore, non-technical adaptation measures also play an important role. It may well be an important adaptation task for tourism providers to introduce a targeted risk management which includes, for example, emergency measures or health-related precautionary measures for protection from heat. Moreover, climate adaptation means that tourism providers should take measures to provide adequate information and communication for guests, with the objective of informing visitors about climate risks, or to guide visitor flows by directing them to low-risk areas. Targeted marketing of touristic offerings can also be useful in supporting businesses or destinations by helping them to achieve more evenly distributed seasonal utilisation. (cf. Indicator TOU-R-1). As a suitable basis for this, a tourism provider can create strategic diversification and expansion of their offerings. Generally speaking, the adaptation to climate change is a continuous process also in tourism, which businesses or destinations need to take into consideration when enhancing their offerings.

In order to conduct their adaptation process in a targeted manner, tourism providers – in view of numerous different challenges and opportunities in adaptation – need to be able to base their decisions on well-founded knowledge as well as supportive decision-making tools. Adaptation to climate change in tourism is supported at Federal and Länder level by working out the basic essentials. For example, the aspect of adaptation to climate change is addressed as an integral part of the key theme entitled ‘Climate neutrality / Environment and nature conservation’ in the dialogue process involving various players in the tourism industry, accessible on the ‘National Platform – Future of Tourism’. A UBA project was carried out to explore the impacts of climate change on tourism destinations in Germany and any relevant opportunities for adaptation¹⁹⁵. In order to make the findings of this research readily available and useful to executive with responsibility in the practical application of tourism, the project produced a guideline for the adaptation to climate change in destinations as well as other offers of information.¹⁹⁶

Apart from funding research, the public purse also supports adaptation efforts in tourism financially by means of various funding programmes. Given the wide range of potential measures and interfaces with other action fields – for instance the safeguarding of infrastructures – there are also advanced funding programmes to be considered in addition to tourism- and adaptation-specific funding programmes. Within the framework of the UBA project mentioned above, a total of 30 relevant funding programmes at Federal and Länder level were identified in 2018; in addition, various funding tools offered by the EU were categorised as relevant in this context. As far as funding at Federal level is concerned, the funding opportunities have included for instance the programme entitled ‘Measures for adaptation to the impacts of climate change’, the KfW bank’s environmental programme and the German Federal Environmental Foundation’s environmental protection funding programme. Likewise, there are – according to the findings of the UBA project – funding programmes available from most of the Länder, which support adaptation to climate change in tourism. However, especially with a view to the adaptation to winter tourism, there are increasingly intense discussions being held debating whether funding for tourism-related investments should be restricted to vacation and leisure offerings available throughout the year.

Furthermore, there are – in numerous Länder – regionspecific offers of information which support the adaptation to climate change in tourism. Besides, Länder and associations increasingly incorporate the subject of climate adaptation in their existing networks for tourism providers, in order to raise awareness of the subject and to indicate available sources of information.

^{191 - StBA – Statistisches Bundesamt (Hg.) 2021: Aktuelle Daten zur Tourismuswirtschaft – Kurzfassung. Wirtschaftliche Bedeutung und Nachhaltigkeit. 40 S. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Volkswirtschaftliche-Gesamtrechnungen-Inlandsprodukt/Publikationen/Downloads-Input-Output-Rechnung/aktuelle-daten-tourismuswirtschaft.html.}

^{192 - Dworak T., Lotter F., Hoffmann P., Hattermann F., Bausch T., Günther W. 2021: Folgen des Klimawandels für den Tourismus in den deutschen Alpen- und Mittelgebirgsregionen und Küstenregionen sowie auf den Badetourismus und flussbegleitende Tourismusformen. Abschlussbericht. Umweltbundesamt (Hg.). Texte 117/2021, Dessau-Roßlau, 160 S. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/479/publikationen/texte_117-2021_folgen_des_klimawandels_fuer_den_tourismus_in_deutschland_0.pdf.}

^{193 - Institut für Länderkunde Leipzig 2000, abgebildet in: DTV – Deutscher Tourismusverband e.V. (Hg.) 2002: 100 Jahre DTV – Die Entwicklung des Tourismus in Deutschland 1902–2002.}

^{194 - Dworak et al. 2021, cf. endnote no. 192}

^{195 - Dworak et al. 2021, cf. endnote no. 192}

^{196 - UBA – Umweltbundesamt (Hg.) 2021: Anpassung an den Klimawandel im Tourismus. https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/klimafolgen-anpassung/anpassung-an-den-klimawandel/anpassung-auf-kommunaler-ebene/anpassung-an-den-klimawandel-im-tourismus#wie-betrifft-der-klimawandel-die-tourismuswirtschaft.}