TOU-I-1 + 2: Coastal bathing temperatures, bed nights on the coast

2019 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Table of Contents

 

TOU-I-1: Coastal bathing temperatures

The duration of seawater temperatures prevailing on German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts, which might benefit a bathing holiday on these coasts, is subject to major fluctuations from year to year. Usually in June suitable temperatures will set in which last into the month of September. So far, no significant trends have been discerned.

The line graph shows the length of time with water temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius as the number of days differentiated for the North Sea and Baltic Sea from 1990 to 2017. In both cases there is no trend. In some cases there are years without data. The values fluctuate between the years, a development cannot be identified at present.
TOU-I-1: Coastal bathing temperatures

The line graph shows the length of time with water temperatures above 15 degrees Celsius as the number of days differentiated for the North Sea and Baltic Sea from 1990 to 2017. In both cases there is no trend. In some cases there are years without data. The values fluctuate between the years, a development cannot be identified at present.

Source: BSH (selected measuring stations)
 

TOU-I-2: Bed nights in coastal tourist areas

The demand for tourism in the travel areas on Germany’s coastlines is particularly seasonal. Despite rising bed-night figures in all seasons, 55 % of overnight stays on North and Baltic Sea coasts will occur during the summer months, i.e. between June and September.

The line graph shows the number of overnight stays in millions, differentiated for the main season from June to September, for the low season from March to May and October, and for winter from November to December of the previous year and January to February of the respective year. The time series ranges from 2007 to 2017.
TOU-I-2: Bed nights in coastal tourist areas

The line graph shows the number of overnight stays in millions, differentiated for the main season from June to September, for the low season from March to May and October, and for winter from November to December of the previous year and January to February of the respective year. The time series ranges from 2007 to 2017. In all three cases, no trend emerges. In the high season, the numbers range between 30 and 35 million, in the low season between 15 and 20 and in winter between 5 and 10 million.

Source: BSH (monthly survey in tourism)
 

Will North Sea and Baltic Sea beach holidays gain in popularity?

When Germans want to have a beach holiday in order to bathe in the sea or to sunbathe, they primarily travel abroad. In 2018, the most popular summer holiday destinations of people living in Germany were Spain, Italy, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Turkey and Schleswig-Holstein. Vacations by the sea account for 12.4 million holidays, thus making them the most popular type of holiday and providing by far the strongest motivation for vacation travel. As far as this type of travel purpose is concerned, Germany has so far played a minor role: In the ranking of domestic holidays, beach holidays – according to a study dating back to 2013 – are in fourth position in the hierarchy of possible motives.68 As far as foreign visitors are concerned, their reasons for travelling to Germany if they want a beach holiday are negligible.69 Approximately 55 % of bed nights in coastal areas of the North Sea or Baltic Sea are incurred in the summer months between June and September. In other regions bed night numbers are distributed evenly across the year.

As far as Germany is concerned, there is a thesis according to which a coastal vacation – as the typical form of summer tourism – can benefit from rising air and sea temperatures resulting from climate change. Above all, this might enhance the attractiveness of seaside resorts thus extending the bathing season in future. Evidence for a tendency towards higher sea temperatures in coastal waters of the North or Baltic Sea has already been provided in terms of measurements taken within the station network of the BSH. The temporal development of the mean annual sea surface temperature measured across the entire North Sea is based on analyses which have been conducted weekly by the BSH since 1968. The outcome of these analyses was characterised by a cold regime that lasted until 1987 and by an abrupt temperature jump of 0.8 °C in 1987/1988 signifying a warm regime which has continued ever since.

In order to enable an estimate – based on sea water temperatures – of the potential for bathing tourism in coastal areas, the temporal duration is illustrated in the number of days on which the sea water temperatures of German coastal waters of North and Baltic Sea exceeded a threshold value of 15 °C. On one hand, this threshold value – which seems relatively low for bathing temperatures – characterises the beginning and end of summer bathing temperature conditions. On the other hand, the time series show the results of measurements taken at some distance from the coast which are therefore more homogeneous and independent of short-term influences. Partly due to stronger diurnal variations, sea water temperatures in coastal bathing waters tend to be higher and potentially suitable for bathing. Owing to the fluctuation margins observed, it has so far not been possible to discern any significant trends for the time series starting in the 1990s thus fitting in perfectly with the recent warm regime.

So far it has not been possible to detect a link between the bathing temperatures observed and the development of bed-night figures in German coastal regions. It would be difficult to establish such a link in any circumstances. On one hand, there are numerous general factors, such as the economic development, the travel pattern and the demand in tourism, which influence bed-night figures. On the other hand, water temperatures are only one aspect among numerous climate-related cause variables that represent the attractiveness of the coasts of North and Baltic Seas as a destination for beach and bathing tourism. Other factors not taken into account in this analysis are e.g. duration of sunshine, air quality and bio-climatic conditions interacting with air temperature, wind, radiation conditions and air humidity70 and, last not least, the occurrence of seaweed or jellyfish on the beaches.

68 DZT – Deutsche Zentrale für Tourismus e. V. (Hrsg.) 2013: Das Reiseverhalten der Deutschen im Inland. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie. Frankfurt a. M., 59 pp.
www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Studien/studie-zum-inlandsreiseverhalten.html
69 DZT (Hrsg.) 2018: Deutschland das Reiseland, Zahlen, Daten, Fakten 2017 Frankfurt a. M., 15 pp.
70 Endler C. & Matzarakis A. 2010: Klimatrends in den Modellregionen Nordsee und Schwarzwald aus einer tourismus-klimatischen Sichtweise – Analyse hoch aufgelöster regionaler Klimasimulationen. Schlussbericht zum Teilvorhaben „Klima- und Wetteranalyse“ des BMBF klimazwei Verbundprojekts Kuntikum. Freiburg, 81 pp.

 

 

Interfaces

WW-I-7: Water temperature in the sea

TOU-I-6: Seasonal bed nights in German tourist areas

TOU-I-7: Holiday destination preferences