ClimateImpactDialog | Umweltbundesamt

The global increase in surface temperature is evident. This is mainly caused by humans. Consequences of climate change are e.g. Ice loss, melting of glaciers, sea level rise and ocean warming and acidification. Even in Rhineland-Palatinate, the consequences of climate change are already be perceptible and measurable. The mean annual average temperature has risen by about 1.4 ° C since 1881. The year 2014 was not only globally, but also the warmest year since measurements began in Germany and Rhineland-Palatinate. In Rhineland-Palatinate, concrete effects of climate change are also already evident in phenology, the annual process of plant development. The mean length of the vegetation period was 13 days longer in the period 1991 to 2014 than in the period 1961 to 1990. All seasons start earlier. These trends are very likely to continue in the future. In addition, the autumn lasts 13 days longer, while the length of spring and summer has changed only insignificantly. Further greenhouse gas emissions will cause continued and probably even accelerating warming as well as further changes in all components of the climate system.

Calculations of regional climate models were performed using ensembles of 15 RCMs, SRES A1B scenario.

On the basis of regional climate projections (simulations with climate models), a further rise in temperature of 2 to 4 degrees celsius in the region of the Palatinate Forest must be expected by the end of this century. During the precipitation, there are no clear trends in the annual rainfall and autumn precipitation. However, the projections show an increase in precipitation in spring and winter and a decrease in precipitation in summer. The above aspects refer to long-term averages. Importantly, especially for the economy, are also individual events such as extreme temperatures, heavy rain or storms. In this regard, the climate projections show that, for example, heat waves in the future not only occur more frequently, but also last longer. Especially in the second half of this century, according to a study by the German Weather Service, a significant increase in the frequency of currently relatively rare events of very high temperatures but also heavy rainfall and storms is to be expected. For example, with regard to extreme summer temperatures, the researchers came to the conclusion that extremely high temperatures, which currently occur only once every 25 years, could be measured every 3 years or even more frequently in the future. Storm events, which are currently occurring every 25 years, could sweep across Germany every 5 years in the future.

Lightning strikes; Changing demand / purchase behavior

• Reference period: 1971-2000
• 2000-2100

Analysis and assessment:

With the aid of the online tool KlimaFolgenCheck climate impacts can be evaluated for companies. This tool can also simulate climate projections based on residence. The goal is to consider site-specific climate data in a user-friendly manner.

Cooperation:

Contributing to the cooperative development of appropriate measures to improve adaptive capacity and reduce sensitivity to the impacts of climate change on businesses and local actors (business promoters, economic units, etc.). A particular focus of the project is the development of forms of cooperation that strengthen the actors involved in their ability to act collectively - in comparison to a single approach. For example, in cooperation between several (small) companies, adaptation measures can be jointly developed and implemented that would not be feasible for a single company, but offer environmental as well as economic advantages in the case of an implementation on an inter-company or municipal level. In this context, it makes sense to initiate an intercommunal dialogue and cooperation in a further step. Thus, the idea of "cooperation despite competition", which shapes corporate networks, could also be transferred to the municipal level.