WASKlim - Water Management Adaption Strategies to Climate Change
Background and Goals
The water management and water management issues have a special significance in the development of the national climate change adaptation strategy, since the components of the water cycle have a high sensitivity to climate change. Water management itself is one of the most highly vulnerable areas in Germany. Moreover, for the development of adaptation strategies for water management it is necessary to involve all the water management issues of other sectors, for example, agriculture, forestry, drinking water supply, power generation, inland navigation, housing and infrastructure development, and tourism.
It is the task of WASKlim to support the development process of the German climate change adaptation strategy. This includes the evaluation of a survey of the federal government, federal states and associations by the BMU (evaluation of the sectoral and regional exposure to climate effects and adaptation measures already realized), and their detailed definition and concentration within the framework of a group Delphi analysis. A conference under the title ""German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change - Expectations, Goals and Options for Action"" was held to identify possible activities and strategy developments as well as to receive impulses from the specialist stakeholders.
Furthermore, a concrete method for defining the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of water management will be developed within WASKlim, which will take precise mathematical functions and (fuzzy) specialist knowledge into account. This decision-making support system will first be tested in three different natural landscapes in Germany (Wupper, Salza, and Upper Iller), which are characterized by intense current and potential conflicts of interest between water management and other sectors.
Objectives:
- Development of a method for the determining the adaptive capacity and vulnerability on the basis of specific adaptation measures. This method will be developed for the water sector, but can be transferred and applied to other sectors.
- Development of adaptation strategies for water management, which avoid specific conflicts of interest that may occur as a consequence of the climate change by means of an integrated balance of interests regarding the protected assets, and contribute to investment and planning decisions in water management, taking uncertainties and changing conditions in the future into account.
- Support for the development of a national strategy for adaptation.
Content time
Research area/region
Country
- Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
- Baden-Württemberg
- Bavaria
- Northrhine-Westphalia
- Saxony
- Saxony-Anhalt
Natural spatial classification
- South-Eeastern basin and hills
- West German lowland bay
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Approach and results
Analysis and modelling is carried out with ECHAM5/WETTREG (statistical downscaling) as well as with ECHAM5/REMO (dynamic downscaling), and the combined results will be discussed. The data is based on the SRES emission scenarios A1, A1B and B2 (IPCC). The WaSiM-ETH model is used for the simulation scenarios (water resources, run-off).
Inaccuracies and uncertainties in the climate projections and the models applied are illustrated by the different methods and scenario sequences used, resulting in different ranges of study, and by significance tests. These will be used as input in the analysis of the three study areas. The resilience of the expert system will be increased by including diverse information sources and the local stakeholders.
Parameter (climate signals)
- River flooding
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
- Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
- Dry periods
Time horizon
- long term = to 2100 and beyond
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Approach and results
For developing the decision support system, developments in terms of climate and water balance will be researched for the whole of Germany. In addition, model simulations of the water cycle are carried out with WaSiM-ETH for the study areas, including simulation scenarios up to the year 2100. The identified climate effects in the catchment areas will be used as "potential impact" input for the expert system and decision support model.
The focus of the WASKlim project lies on water management. In the course of the project, other sectors were also discussed: agriculture, forestry, drinking water supply, power generation, inland navigation, housing and infrastructure development, and tourism.
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Approach and results
Vulnerability is defined by the sum of the of the climate change indicators, with which specific climatic impacts, associated potential effects, and their mitigation through the existing, useful adaptive capacity are described. WASKlim will analyse the vulnerability of the water management sector, with regard to the water consumption, and taking social conditions in Germany into account. In the WASKlim project, the adaptive capacity of various sectors of water management will be analysed (esp. water supply, hydropower, inland waterways, riverine conditions), both as an overview and specifically for the three study areas. In selecting the study areas, preference was given to those areas for which a high level of vulnerability was identified with respect to water management, in accordance with the objectives of the WASKlim project.
Urgency and priorization of adaptation needs
Evaluation of a survey of the federal government, federal states and associations by the BMU. Local decisions on adaptation measures and local need for action using the WASKlim-EUS by the receptors in the respective study areas, based on the conditions and results of the scenario calculations.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
Measures and/or strategies
Objective: Development of adaptation strategies for water management in the form of a decision support system ("WASKlim-EUS") and confirmation with the aid of three study areas. The "WASKlim-EUS" takes information from climate and water resource simulations as well as information from diverse studies (literature, on-site investigations) and expert knowledge into account.
Building on the results of the model simulations, water management adaptation strategies were developed for Germany, and for the three study areas in particular. These are designed to help avoid specific conflicts of interest that may occur as a consequence of the climate change. In addition, they are intended to contribute to investment and planning decisions in water management, taking uncertainties and changing conditions in the future into account.
An important contribution to identifying adaptation measures and their benefits is provided by the statements of the stakeholders in situ. Since these statements cannot be captured with exact mathematical relations, they are implemented in the expert system with the aid of a fuzzy logic method. The installation of a complex fuzzy-based policy for a decision-making support allows the consequences of changed climate conditions and anthropogenic adaptation measures to be quantified. This way, besides mathematical functions, even unfocused expert knowledge can be integrated (fuzzy terms such as "little", "relatively" or "much").
Time horizon
- beyond 2100 (far future)
Conflicts / synergies / sustainability
The structure and the results of the WASKlim-EUS contribute to planning decisions and a balance of interests, through which conflicts of interest can be avoided and/or discussed more easily.
Participants
Funding / Financing
German Environment Agency (UBA)
Project management
UDATA
Cooperation/Partners
University of the Federal Armed Forces, Munich: Chair for Water Management and Resource Conservation, Chair for Building Project Management and Spatial Planning;
DIALOGIK gGmbH, Stuttgart
Contact
UDATA
Hans-Geiger-Straße 18
D-67434 Neustadt/Wstr.
