UKCIP – United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme | Umweltbundesamt

Climate projections are being developed to highlight possible changes in the climate in the 21st Century. The UKCIP02 and UKCIP08 climate projections are based on various emission scenarios and provide information about possible regional climate changes, changes in extreme weather events and sea levels.

UKCIP08 is a regional climate projection with a scale of 25 x 25 km and aggregated results for different administrative regions and river drainage basins. Overlapping time periods of 30 years are modelled, extended by 10 years at a time (e.g. 2011-2040, 2021-2050 etc. up to 2071-2100), for three future emission scenarios (high, medium and low). The results are changes in monthly, seasonal and annual average values for a variety of climate variables, as well as information about changes in extreme events compared to the period 1961-1990.

New climate projections are being published in 2009: UKCP99 (UK Climate Projections2009). They contain the very latest information about climate change in the United Kingdom in the 21st Century. They once again use three emission scenarios - "high", "medium" and "low" - and focus on the averaged years 2020, 2050 and 2080.

The following climate changes are likely for the United Kingdom: It will get warmer, the temperature of coastal waters will rise (but not so quickly as over land), high summer temperatures will become more common and very cold winters more rare, winters will be wetter and summers drier, snowfall will decrease, severe winter precipitation will be more common, sea levels will continue to rise at most sections of coastline and extreme sea levels will occur more frequently.

Climate effects for agriculture will result from the occurrence of new pests and diseases for arable crops and livestock. Requirements for current agricultural products could change, e.g. due to changed consumer preferences. Biodiversity will be affected by changes in species distribution patterns and habitat composition, with threats and opportunities for different species. In urban areas, consequences for planning and construction of housing, roads, public utilities and drainage systems are already expected, as these are designed for the long term (50 or 60 years). Climate effects will also be felt in all economic sectors, where both new opportunities and risks to traditional markets, products and services could occur. Climate change is bringing about a range of challenges for preserving the historic plant composition in parks, in terms of inward migration of exotic species and new pests. For the health sector, a fall in death rates due to cold temperatures in the winter and an increase in deaths caused by heat in the summer can be expected. Warmer temperatures could also lead to more cases of food poisoning.

Local authorities and decision makers such as city and county councils play a key role in ensuring the sustainability of their communities when faced with climate change. Many of the services they provide will be affected, e.g. emergency planning, waste collection and disposal, spatial planning, property management, leisure facilities and social services. In addition, large parts of the United Kingdom are vulnerable to flooding from high rivers, storm floods and flash flooding caused by precipitation and the risks these cause will increase due to climate change. Climate change will also intensity the existing problems of water availability, water demand and water quality.

The UKCIP activities help all organisations, sectors and decision makers to assess their vulnerability to climate change, enabling them to adapt effectively and promptly. Vulnerability is viewed as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity of a system.

Study of the different resilience and sensitivity of different regions and sectors, in order to improve adaptation as part of risk management. Building up adaptation capacity and providing adaptation measures are two aspects of an adaptation process: The former relates to the provision of information and general conditions that are necessary before implementing adaptation measures, while the latter relates to implementation of measures to reduce vulnerability.

An "Adaptation Wizard" will be provided online on the Internet, which explains in four steps how climate effects can be recorded, risks quantified, decisions and measures identified and planned, and adaptation strategies tested. Whether and how the relevant step can be achieved is outlined using certain key questions. It also shows the principles that need to be observed for "good climate adaptation" and a list is provided to set out and explain the relevant principles and resources. The principles of good climate adaptation are intended to provide guidelines for a general strategy for "climate proof" decision making.

The current version 2.0 of the "Adaptation Wizard" has been given an additional step: "Am I vulnerable to the current climate?" The background is the finding that it is easier for some people to think about future climate effects if they are familiar with their exposure to current climate variability and extreme weather events. This new step contributes to making the necessity for adaptation clearer, as it creates a link between vulnerability to current weather and that caused by future climate change.