SIAM – Scenarios, Impacts, and Adaptation Measures

Background and Goals

The project focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical impacts for Portugal, and is based upon climate projection models. The work is divided into eleven groups, that concern themselves with various aspects such as scenario development, problem awareness of policy-makers in the government, GIS and remote sensing, and the on climate change impacts for certain sectors. The following sectors are investigated: Fisheries, forestry and biodiversity, health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones and energy.

The project is divided into two phases: SIAM I (1999-2002) examined climate scenarios, climate change impacts and adaptation measures. SIAM II (2002-2006) continued the studies with updated climate models and added two additional components: an expanded area of study and a case study component focused on the Sado estuary.

The objective of ?SIAM is to create an integrated climate effect assessment for Portugal. In addition, the case study component in SIAM II is also intended to help policy-makers in the public sector by providing information relevant to the decision-making processes.

Content time


Research area/region

  • Portugal
Spatial resolution 

Mündungsgebiet des Sado

Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change

Step 1: Understand and describe climate change

Approach and results 

IPCC scenario IS92a and Hadley Centre regional climate model were used (SIAM I, relevant information for SIAM II not accessible free of charge)

Time horizon
  • long term = to 2100 and beyond

Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact

Approach and results 

The climate change impacts are examined on the basis of the scenarios for the different sectors in Portugal.

Step 3: Develop and compare measures

Measures and/or strategies 

Recommendations for adaptation measures will also be made for the examined sectors.

Time horizon
  • 2071–2100 (far future)


Funding / Financing 

SIAM I: Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian, FCG), 1999 - 2002 Foundation for Science and Technology, Portugal (Fundação da Ciência e da Tecnologia, FCT), 2000 - 2002

SIAM II Ministry for Cities, Spatial Planning and the Environment, Portugal

Project management 

Faculty of Natural Sciences of the University of Lisbon (Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa)


Universidade da Beira Interior Universidade Lusófona Instituto de Meteorologia Universidade dos Açores Universidade Nova de Lisboa Instituto Superior Técnico Chiron, Sistemas de Informação, SA Universidade do Algarve Instituto Superior de Agronomia Escola Superior Agrária de Elvas Universidade do Porto Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge Instituto Nacional de Engenharia, Tecnologia e Inovação Universidade de Coimbra Ecoprogresso Instituto Nacional de Engenharia e Tecnologia Industrial HIDROPROJECTO, SA Euronatura


Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa
Edifício C1, Sala 1.4.39, Campo Grande

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Fields of action:
 agriculture  coastal and marine protection  energy infrastructure  fishery  human health and care  water regime and water management  woodland and forestry