Background and Goals
The project is assessing the monetary effects of climate change for Europe. Bottom-up analyses and sectoral assessments are used to analyse the effects of climate change for the 25 member states of the European Union (EU 25) and for Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey.
The objective of the project is to extend knowledge of the benefits of a demanding climate policy, as a comprehensive, systematic and coherent assessment of the financial consequences of climate change for the different sectors in Europe is not yet available. This is being done by researching the financial consequences of climate change in Europe for specific sectors and across sectors, focusing on the following sectors and areas of activity: Coastal zones and systems, energy requirements, human health, agriculture, tourism and flooding.
- Europe (EU-25)
- Mecklenburg Western Pomerania
- Lower Saxony
- Rhineland Palatinate
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
The climate data is being transferred from the European research project PRUDENCE. Global, large scale climate scenarios and the emission scenarios A2 and B2 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are being used. For the time horizon 2011-2040, the RCA3 regional climate model (from the Rossby Centre - SMHI) is being used with the general conditions from the global ECHAM4 model, based on scenario A2. For the time horizon 2071-2100, the two regional climate models HIRHAM (from the Danish Meteorological Institute - DMI) and RCAO (from the SMHI) and the two global models ECHAM4, which is linked to the OPYC3 ocean model, and HadAM3H, which is linked to the HadCM3 model in terms of sea surface temperatures, are being used. Temperature increase for emission scenario A2 by 2071-2100 +3°C and for emission scenario B2 +2.2°C.
- Altered rainfall patterns
- Higher average temperatures
2011-2040 and 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
Climate effects for agriculture are changed yields, which could fall by more than 10% for Southern and Western Europe and by between 0 and 5% for Central and North East Europe, depending on the model and scenario used, while an increase of more than 15% is possible for Northern Europe.
For tourism, climate effects could lead to changed trends and attractiveness of tourist destination areas. Climatic suitability for summer tourism can be expressed using the "Tourism Climate Index" (TCI), which includes climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, rain and wind. Suitability for summer tourism is decreasing, particularly in Southern Europe, while it is slightly increasing in Northern Europe. Attractiveness in spring and autumn is increasing everywhere.
Climate effects in the area of human health occur due to changed death rates, which could increase in summer (particularly in Southern Europe) and decrease in winter (particularly in Eastern Europe).
For the 100 year flow of major European rivers, in terms of climate effects it can be established that in large parts of Europe the frequency of extreme flows is increasing, but is also decreasing in some areas (particularly North East Europe).
For coastal zones, climate effects particularly arise due to rising sea levels, which can result in flood damage, loss of wetlands, greater erosion, salinisation of groundwater and rising water inland water levels. Direct damage, as well as flood areas and erosion mechanisms, are simulated using the DIVA model developed in the DINAS-COAST project. Without adaptation measures, levels of damage could rise sharply.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
- 2011–2040 (near future)
- 2071–2100 (far future)
Policy relevant time horizon is the 2020s. The project is also studying the 2080s.
Step 4: Plan and implement measures
The project primarily focuses on assessing the economic effects of climate change. To do this, cases with and without adaptation are compared for certain sectors.
European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission
Polytechnic University of Madrid (agriculture),
AEA Technology and Metroeconomica (human health),
FEEM/University of Southampton (coastal systems),
JRC/IES (river flooding),
ICIS-Maastricht University (tourism),
FEDEA (energy demand)
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Calle Inca Garcilaso