GLOWA-Elbe - Impacts of Global Change on the Water Cycle in the Elbe Region

Background and Goals

This collaborative project is carried out within the GLOWA programme (Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle), a major research project aiming to develop integrated strategies for the clear-sighted and sustainable use of water and water bodies at regional scales, considering both ecosystems and how these interact and prevailing socio-economic conditions. The central issue in GLOWA-Elbe is the impact of global change on water availability and conflicting uses of water in the Elbe basin. For the Spree-Havel region the project also aims not only to identify problems and conflicts, but also to develop integrated strategies to sustainably overcome these.

There are three phases within the GLOWA-Elbe project:

Phase I (2000-2003): "Integrated Analysis of the Impacts of the Environment and Society in the Elbe Basin": In the first phase the emphasis was on investigating the trend towards declining water availability.

Phase II (2004-2007): "Global Change Impacts on the Water Cycle in the Elbe River Basin - Risks and Options": Analysis of the regional effects of global change in the Elbe Basin and the resulting policy options for surface water management. GLOWA-Elbe II covers processes in the Czech and German parts of the Elbe basin, but policy options and recommendations are only analysed or made for the German part. Among the spectrum of activities, special attention is given not only to the effects of climate change, but also to analysis of the impacts of new technologies, socio-economic change processes, land-use change and extreme events. Policy options for surface water availability and quality are formulated, analysed and assessed. The formulation of alternative policy options for water availability and quality is based on previous investigations of the potential for conflict under status quo conditions and under changes to the status quo through potential climate-change impacts. The expected final result of GLOWA-Elbe II will be specific policy options for the conflicting areas of water availability and quality, and overarching recommendations for adaptation of surface water management to global change.

Phase III (2007-2010): "Global Change Impacts on the Water Cycle in the Elbe River Basin - achievements and consequences": For the third phase the GLOWA-program is oriented to 'help decision makers in the catchment areas to examine and assess the impact of various decisions. These systems should be designed so that they are transferable to other comparable river basins'. The following objectives are pursued:

  • Provision and dissemination of the instruments (‚Elbe-Expert-Toolbox’) and results of the investigation GLOWA-alliance (to adjust the water management in the Elbe region to the challenges of global change) to the practice; for this purpose substantive, technical and organizational requirements are to be created, and
  • Demonstration of the developed instruments in policy-use cases for the whole Elbe region.

Content time

to

Research area/region

Country
  • Germany
Region of implementation (all German federal states)
  • Baden-Württemberg
  • Brandenburg
  • Hamburg
  • Mecklenburg Western Pomerania
  • Lower Saxony
  • Saxony
  • Saxony-Anhalt
  • Schleswig-Holstein
Natural spatial classification
  • Erz Mountains, Thuringian Forest and Bavarian Forest
  • North-East German lowland
  • North-West German lowland
  • South-Eeastern basin and hills

Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change

Step 1: Understand and describe climate change

Approach and results 

Scenarios concerning the future trends of essential parameter affecting the water quantity and water quality in the Elbe drainage area have been developed. Beside the climate change related scenarios, scenarios for population development and settlement structure, the development of the energy sector, agricultural policy and land use have been developed as well. IPCC emission scenarios A1 and B2 had been used. Scenario calculations are based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model. By means of the statistical downscaling method (STAR), climate parameters are simulated per day up to 2055 using local monitoring data from 1951 to 2000. In addition, the climate changes in the Elbe region have been simulated for 2020-2049 using the regional climate model REMO, which is driven by the global ECHAM4/OPYC3 model as well.

Parameter (climate signals)
  • River flooding
  • Altered rainfall patterns
  • Higher average temperatures
  • Extreme precipitation (incl. hail, snow)
Further Parameters 

wind speed, humidity, sunshine

Time horizon
  • medium term = to 2050
Further times 

2049, 2052, 2055

Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact

Approach and results 

Direct and indirect impacts of global change have been considered, such as those on the surface water quality, the quality of the environment and the socio-economic capacity of the Elbe region. This includes nutrient and pollutant emissions into surface waters, water supply, water demand and surface water availability. Another consequence is the decrease in annual precipitation, reduced evaporation, reduced surface and subsurface water runoff and reduced groundwater recharge, which affects agricultural yields (e.g. winter crop). Stronger and more frequent heavy rainfall events lead to consequences for flood protection.

Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances

Approach and results 

Vulnerability analysis for different areas of conflict are performed to evaluate and assess the socio-economic impact (e.g. for surface water use by thermal power plants, industry, water transfers, watergates, nitrogen retention, wetlands, grassland management, water plants, aquaculture, and tourism on mining lakes). Therefore, the vulnerability of each user group regarding to low or declining surface water availabilities will be analyzed by means of quantitative and qualitative surveys and literature studies. In addition, integrated strategies for the sustainable management of water use conflicts will be considered, which may include adaptive capacity to global change in the broader sense as well.

Step 3: Develop and compare measures

Measures and/or strategies 

As part of a global change adaptation measures for the water management need to be developed.

The Integrative Methodological Approach (IMA), which was developed in the first phase of the GLOWA-Elbe project, plays a central role in structuring the research content, in the temporal organization and in assuring the convergence and consistency of the different working areas. It is a methodological formalism of systems analysis, which allows target-oriented scenario analyses through involvement of users and other persons affected. IMA includes definitions and categories for the formulation of problems and lays down an order for the steps to be taken in the scenario analysis. At the same time IMA represents an application- and practice oriented research philosophy to evaluate action strategies under the uncertainties of global change. There are four research steps:

(1) "Scenarios": Developing scenarios of possible future trends based on changes in general and regional almost uncontrollable conditions on the one hand (climate, global market) and measures by the actors (according to the courses of action) on the other hand.

(2) "Definition of indicators and criteria": Establishing specific sustainability indicators and criteria for assessing the impact.

(3) "Impact analysis": Analyzing of consequences using available data, models, expert knowledge, literature, etc.

(4) "Evaluation": Evaluation using multi-criteria analysis and derivation and evaluation of long-term recommendations and strategies concerning the conflicting areas of surface water availability, surface water quality and flood risk, which can serve as guidelines for politics and economy of the region.

Related to these four steps the IMA shall enable the participation of all persons involved in the research and decision-making process (such as stakeholders, decision makers in politics and economy, conservationist and citizens).

Time horizon
  • 2036–2065
Conflicts / synergies / sustainability 

Conflict analyzes will be carried out for the conflict areas of surface water availability (the energy sector in particular), surface water quality and flood risk. There are conflicts, especially concerning the water use and thus integrated strategies for a sustainable and proactive management of water and water bodies are needed. In the Spree region conflicting uses of water between water-related sectors and federal states such as following, will be investigated as well: inland fisheries, agriculture, tourism in the Spree Forest and the Lusatian lakes, nature conservation, water conservation and lignite mining and between the interests of the states of Saxony, Brandenburg and Berlin (conflicts can be exacerbated due to the enormous water demand for flooding of the open-cast mines).

Step 4: Plan and implement measures

Costs of the measures 

sectoral cost-benefit analysis and monetary valuations

Participants

Funding / Financing 

Within the GLOWA programme (Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle), funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Project management 

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Cooperation/Partners 

 

  • Brandenburgische Technische Universität (BTU) Cottbus, Fak. Umweltwissenschaften und Verfahrenstechnik, LS für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft;
  • Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG), Koblenz;
  • Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Berlin; Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZJ);
  • Fraunhofer-Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe;
  • Institut für ländliche Räume, Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landwirtschaft (FALLR), Braunschweig; Institut für Gewässerökologie und Binnenfischerei (IGB), Berlin;
  • Technische Universität (TU) Berlin; Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur- und Umweltplanung, FG Vergleichende Landschaftsökonomie, Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa (IAMO), Halle;
  • Umweltforschungszentrum (UFZ) Leipzig-Halle GmbH, Department Ökonomie;
  • Vrije Universität Amsterdam (VUA);
  • WASY Gesellschaft für wasserwirtschaftliche Planung und Systemforschung mbH Berlin;
  • Zentrum für Agrarlandschafts- und Landnutzungsforschung e.V. (ZALF), Institut für Landschaftswasserhaushalt, Müncheberg

Integrated into the research umbrella programs in the field of interdisciplinary water research: GWSP (Global Water System Project): Joint program of the Earth System Science Partnership, consisting of WCRP (World Climate Research Program), IGBP (International Geosphere Biosphere Program), IHDP (International Human Dimension Programs) and DIVERSITAS (International Biodiversity Research Program), HELP (Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy): cross-sectional program of the sixth phase of the International Hydrological Program of UNESCO

Contact

PIK – Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung.
Telegraphenberg A 31
14473 Potsdam

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Fields of action:
 agriculture  biological diversity  spatial planning, urban and settlement development  water regime and water management  woodland and forestry