CLISP – Climate Change Adaptation by Spatial Planning in the Alpine Space | Umweltbundesamt

A1B and B1 IPCC emissions scenarios; global climate models: ECHAM5, HadCm3, ARPEGE; regional climate models: REMO, CLM, RegCM3, ALADIN (see also ENSEMBLES project).

Climate change scenarios project continuously rising temperatures for the Alps up to +4 °C until the end of the 21st century, with an accelerated increase in the second half of the century. As in the past, the Alps will be exposed to a stronger warming than in the European average. Temperatures will rise strongest in higher elevations (> 1500 m above sea level), where an increase of +4.2°C is expected. Changes in precipitation amounts are projected to be rather moderate in terms of the yearly total, and likely to decrease south of the Alpine main ridge. However, significant changes are expected in seasonal distribution of precipitation amounts: summers are projected to become considerably drier in all regions, and in particular in the south, whereas in winter and spring precipitation will increase in the north and north-west and decrease in the south and south-east of the Alps. Winter precipitation is expected to increasingly fall as rain rather than snow, leading to a rise of the snow line and fewer days with snow cover. As a consequence, winter run-off will increase in most regions, and summer run-off will generally decrease.

Anticipated consequences of climate change include, in particular, an increase in temperature extremes, a higher variability in precipitation between years, the further retreat of glaciers and thawing of permafrost zones, more frequent water scarcity in summer, reduced snow reliability in winter, and an increase in the occurrence and magnitude of extreme weather events and natural hazards.

Vulnerability is seen as a product of exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity (according to the IPCC). Strategic recommendations are given for the climate change vulnerability assessment.

The results of the vulnerability assessment and the climate change fitness of the spatial planning instruments and processes are: The climate-proofing of spatial planning is a basic necessity, i.e., a "climate change fitness check" of spatial planning measures and projects should become standard practice. Not only do the effects of projects and plans on the climate need to be assessed (e.g. decreased/increased carbon emission), but also the possible influence of a changing climate on the projects and plans (for example, defining a reference scenario for flooding). For the "climate-proofing" of spatial planning policies and programs, existing Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) procedures and instruments can be used.

Climate change information and vulnerability assessments are provided across all sectors to support climate adaptation processes, in particular, the development of adaptation strategies and measures in spatial planning. The adaptation measures in the model regions will be assessed in terms of their effectiveness for spatial planning.

Special attention must be paid to adaptation measures for climate-proof planning in the following four key areas:

1. Protect open and green spaces: support airflow for cooling, networking of habitats and protection of ecological corridors, reduction of heat stress in residential areas and protection of flood retention and draining areas;
2. Urban planning: promote "green" building technologies, improvement of the infrastructure for handling heavy precipitation, drinking water supply, horizontal and vertical greening of urban spaces, creation of "blue" spaces (water) for cooling;
3. Natural hazard management: more effective implementation of flood protection and avalanche zone plans, stricter zoning regulations and restrictions for building in danger zones, take climate change scenarios into account for threat assessment and management;
4. Water management: spatial planning has a bearing on several water management tasks such as flood protection, water conservation areas, water supply and wastewater infrastructures.