CPA - Klimabeweisgebiete - Vergleich der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Nordseeländer

Ziel der Studie

CPA aims to create a portfolio of climate adoption strategies in order to create a toolkit for adaptation in the North Sea region



Bundesland Nationwide
Untersuchungsraum North-Sea region: Belgium, Germany (Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Bremen), Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom
Räumliche Auflösung 

For climate impacts, regional specific tables and graphs.

Verwendete Klimamodelle / Ensembles

Emissionsszenarien A1B
Klimamodelle Not documented in report
Ensembles no
Anzahl der Modellläufe Not documented in report
Regionales Klimamodell 

Not documented in report

Weitere Parameter 

average and extreme temperature, average and extreme precipitation, sea level rise, flooding


2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100


Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Wasser
    • Abflussverhältnisse (von Oberflächengewässern)

"Inland flooding: Exemplary remarkable floods in German North Sea tributaries were floods of the Rhine (1993, 1995), the Odra (1997), and the Elbe Rivers (2002). Observations only partly show slight increases in flood intensity and flood probability. However, most of the identified trends are statistically not significant using all historically available gauge data (Bormann et al., 2008). In contrast, Petrow and Merz (2009) identified regionally significant trends in the second half of the 20th century in German river basins. Projections by the German Federal Government (Bundesregierung, 2008) assume an increasing flood risk in winter due to lighter snow fall as well as snow cover and strengthened direct runoff generation mechanisms. In northern Germany there is currently no concrete strategy available to adapt flood protection to climate change conditions. In comparison, in southern Germany (Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg) so called 'climate change adaptation factors' have been introduced to adapt design floods to climate change conditions; thus, to take into account the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological time series, design floods are multiplied by factors depending on the flood probability, e.g., 15% for a hundred year flood, 8% for a 200 year flood, and 3% for a 500 year flood (Katzenberger, 2008; LfU BW, 2005)." (p. 40)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Küsten-und Meeresschutz

"Coastal flooding: In Lower Saxony, sea dikes are assumed to be safe, assuming that there is no risk 'behind' the dike with respect to a potential dike breach. As mentioned above, projections of future sea level rise in Lower Saxony are based on the global projections of the IPCC (2007), compared to a linear extrapolation of the changes observed in the past (NLWKN, 2007). This results in an expected sea level rise of 18 to 59 cm by 2100 (NLWKN, 2007). The current strategy therefore is to increase the height of dikes by the expected climate change induced sea level rise to further ensure safety." (p. 16)
"In the past century, statistically significant increasing trends have been observed for temperature and sea level while for many other variables such as precipitation the underlying variability is very large. For this reason detectable trends are not statistically significant. With respect to model based climate projections, there is similarly a clear indication of a rise in temperature. Precipitation is expected to change as well although models tend to disagree even in the direction change for summer precipitation in northern Germany (IPCC, 2007). Sea level rise is expected to continue further in future, thus increasing the risk for coastal areas in particular." (p. 40)

Methodischer Ansatz

Kurzbeschreibung des methodischen Ansatzes 

Analysing, gathering, updating and synthesizing all existing information on the expected impact of climate change on the partner regions. Develop and testing innovative adaptation measures. Adapting policy recommendations and mobilizing political support. Collect the lessons learned for future projects. International project management and communication actions.

Analysekonzeptansatz früherer IPCC-Ansatz (2004, 2007)
Komponenten im Analysekonzept  Klimawirkung
Methodik zur Operationalisierung Qualitative Informationen (z.B. Experteninterviews)


Herausgeber Interreg IV B Nordsee (Finanziert aus dem Europäischen Fonds für regionale Entwicklung (EFRE))

WP1 Ghent University (BE), WP2 Rijkswaterstaat (NL) , WP3 Oldenburg University , WP4 Deltares , WP5 Province of Zeeland

Bibliographische Angaben 

Verhofstede, B. et al. 2011: Comparison of climate change effects across North Sea countries. CPA Work Package 1 report

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Fields of action:
 agriculture  biological diversity  buildings  fishery  spatial planning, urban and settlement development  tourism industry  transport and transport infrastructure  water regime and water management  woodland and forestry