ESPON Climate. Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies - Case Study North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) | Umweltbundesamt

"Results of the overall vulnerability to climate change: The overall relative vulnerability to climate change shows low values for large parts of the lowlands. For the other parts, however, the pattern is more heterogeneous than for the aggregated impacts. This is mainly caused by the spatially distributed values of the adaptive capacity. By and large, most vulnerable municipalities are found along the upper Rhine valley, the Ruhr area in the mountainous areas as well as at the foothills of the mountains. The results from the pan-European assessment, however, show a spatially quite homogenous pattern of vulnerability with slightly higher values in the northern region." (p. 73)
"Based on the changes in the considered seven climate variables, three regions of similar climate change characteristics - not current climate - have been identified by means o a cluster analysis [...]. [...] The first cluster comprises large parts of the Westphalian Bay and the Lower Rhine region. The second cluster 'Low mountain range' is covering the higher altitudes of the study area, like the low mountain ranges 'Eifel' and 'Sauerland'. The third cluster 'Cologne Bay' encompasses the southern part of the Rhine-Valley." (p. 74)
"The lowest vulnerability of the regions is found in the first cluster 'Westphalian Bay - Lower Rhine region'. Here, lower physical and environmental impacts can be expected under the model CCLM. However, social impacts are relatively high due a higher share of urban area within flood prone areas of the river Rhine and due to a strong increase in heat days affection the population. The economic impacts are medium compared to the other clusters, which is mainly due to some potential impacts of windthrow on forest in the region of 'Hohe Mark' and 'Egge mountains' and potential negative effects of droughts on agricultural areas in the 'Münsterland'. Together with a relatively low adaptive capacity, this results in the lowest vulnerability value regarding the three clusters. The cluster three 'Eifel and Sauerland' exhibits overall a medium values of vulnerability compared to the other two regions. Especially economic and social impacts are higher in this region. This can be explained by a high share of population and urban area in flood-prone areas along the river Rhine and an expected strong increase in heat days affecting this densely populated region. However, the relative adaptive capacity is high regading the economic resources of the region and the level of knowledge and awareness. This is especially the case for the city of Bonn." (p. 75)