ESPON Climate - Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies | Umweltbundesamt

"Combined economic impact of climate change: Overall the economic impacts of climate change show a clear south-north gradient: many economically important countries like large parts of the U.K. may expect only a low to marginal negative impact on their economy or even a positive impact which particularly the case for wide parts of Germany Poland almost the whole Scandinavia. However, large parts of Southern Europe are dependent on (summer) tourism, but also agriculture. Both are projected to be negatively impacted due to the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation while the environmental conditions for agriculture in North-Eastern Europe tend to be improved. Moreover, energy demands come into play through the increased need for cooling. The Alps as a premier tourist depended region are also identified as hotspot which mainly results from the projected decrease in snow cover. The economic impact in South Eastern Europe is a consequence of the impact on agriculture - which is still important there." (p. 99)

"Potential physical impacts of climate change/potential impact of climate change on settlements: The map [...] indicates that settlements in coastal regions are projected to have high negative impacts. In Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany this even applies to cities in the 'second' row that would be newly affected by coastal storm surges due to sea level rise. Impacts from river flooding are also clearly discernible throughout Europe. The highest negative impacts are often due to a combination of exposures: River and coastal flooding in northern Italy and western France and flash floods and coastal flooding in Norway. But positive impacts are evident in Southern, Eastern and South-eastern Europe due to generally decreasing precipitation in these regions which may lead to a decrease in river flooding." (p. 86)

"Tourism: According to Hamilton et al (2005) an increase in international tourism is expected in Austria and Switzerland in the Central Europe North region (Austria, Germany, and Switzerland). This is because of the assumption that localities at higher altitudes will become more attractive (Hamilton & Tol, 2007). In Germany a decrease in international tourism is expected but all countries in the region are expected to become more attractive as tourist destinations for the domestic population. This is assumed to outweigh the negative effect from decreased international tourists in Germany. The effect on winter tourism in Austria and Switzerland is more uncertain as the ski industry in central Europe is likely to be disrupted by significant reductions in natural snow cover. This will primarily be a problem at the beginning and the end of the ski season." (p. 73)

"Change in inundation through river flooding: Also river flooding affects most European regions only marginally, but some regions exhibit considerable changes. Among the areas characterised by considerable increases in river flooding are regions located in Northern Scandinavia and Northern Italy. Also some regions in Romania are quite severely affected. Corresponding to the precipitation patterns there are also some regions projected to experience decreases in exposure to river flooding, predominantly in eastern parts of Germany, in Poland and Hungary." (p. 30)