CECILIA - Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment - Periodic activity report

Ziel der Studie

To improve the understanding of local climate change in Central and Eastern Europe and its impacts into forestry, agriculture, hydrology and air quality.

Erscheinungsjahr

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Bundesland Nationwide
Untersuchungsraum Central and Eastern Europe, Germany, Austria, Switzerland
Räumliche Auflösung 

Regional and local mapping 10x10km

Verwendete Klimamodelle / Ensembles

Emissionsszenarien A1B, AR4-A1B
Klimamodelle ARPEGE and ECHAM5
Ensembles yes
Anzahl der Modellläufe Not documented in report
Regionales Klimamodell 

ALADIN and RegCM

Weitere Parameter 

Agro climatic indicators:

duration of growing season and of the vegetation summer;

number of days suitable for sowing and harvesting;

accumulated water deficits during key parts of growing season (April-June);

number of growing degree days without significant water stress;

snow cover presence/absence during days with Tmin < -5°C and -15°C and duration of snow cover;

probability of serious frost damage to winter field crops;

number of days during cereal anthesis with daily maximum temperature over 32 and 35°C

Zeitraum 

Two time slices: 2020-2050 and 2070-2100

Klimawirkungen

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Landwirtschaft
    • Agrophänologie
    • Ertrag und Qualität der Ernteprodukte

"The European corn borer (ECB) will benefit from expected temperature increase and prolonged growing season. At the same time, the emergence of bivoltine populations and a further increase to a third generation in the warmest areas is indicated. The lowland areas presently occupied by the univoltine population are likely to be replaced by a bivoltine population, which only slightly exceeds the original areal of univoltine one. HadCM-high presumes the prevailing increase of about one generation, which will probably result in the presence of a third generation in the eastern part of Austria, north of Italy, and western part of Germany (Rhine valley), where there are currently two generations per season. The NCAR-PCM-high scenario assumes a wider spread, covering a major part of Hungary, Croatia, and the whole simulated part of Italy. Significantly, a third generation is predicted to emerge in 17.8% of arable land in the domain (NCAR-PCMhigh), which has serious implications on production risk." (p. 89)
"A gradient with lower values in the north and higher values in the south is observed. The highest values are found over the Mediterranean Sea. With climate change, the AOT40c values are increasing. The highest increase occurs in Northern Italy and over the Iberian Peninsula. With present day conditions (1991-2000) the critical level for crops (9,000 ppb h) is not exceeded north of the Alps and the Black Sea. In the calculation with future climate (2091-2100) the AOT40c values become higher and the limiting line of 9,000 ppb h is shifted to the north causing exceedances of critical level for crops in the majority of CEE countries with no exceedances in present climate. These are: Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria." (p. 116)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Menschliche Gesundheit

"Results of comparison between pollutant levels for control and for future periods given as differences in Figs. 112-114 (middle and right panels) show that climate change impacts on air pollution levels are small to moderate, and have different direction depending on pollutant concerned. For PM, decrease in concentrations (up to -3.5 μg/m3) in future decades relative to control period in most of the countries is predicted. The exception of that trend is noted only for the Northern Germany, where slight increase in 2041-2050 period is observed. For SO2 higher concentrations (up to 3.5 μg/m3) are predicted in the future. The highest increase is expected for Upper Silesia region in Poland as well as for Northern Hungary." (p. 124)

Methodischer Ansatz

Kurzbeschreibung des methodischen Ansatzes 

Using very high resolution RCMs run locally for targeted areas in order to capture the effects of the complex terrain of the region.

Analysekonzeptansatz früherer IPCC-Ansatz (2004, 2007)
Komponenten im Analysekonzept  Klimatischer Einfluss, Sensitivität, Klimawirkung, Vulnerabilität, Anpassungskapazität
Methodik zur Operationalisierung Quantitative Wirkmodelle (z.B. Abflussmodelle), Proxy-Indikatoren, Qualitative Informationen (z.B. Experteninterviews)

Participants

Herausgeber FP6
Kontakt 

 

  • Project coordinator organisation: Charles University (CUNI)
  • Project co-ordinator: Dr. Tomas Halenka, Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics Department of Meteorology, Czech Republic
  • Other contributors: The Abdus Salam (ICTP), Meteo-France (CNRM), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH), Czech Hydro meteorological Institute (CHMI), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ), University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), National Meteorological Administration (NMA), National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (NIHWM), Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Forest Research Institute (FRI), Warsaw University of Technology (WUT), Eotvos Lorand University (ELU)
Bibliographische Angaben 

Halenka, T.; Charles University 2006: Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment: Periodic activity report. Prague

Final report: http://www.cecilia-eu.org/Y3_PAR.pdf

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Fields of action:
 agriculture  human health and care  water regime and water management  woodland and forestry  other