The projected future climatic changes will be taken into account by an estimation of the changing occurrence probability. Corresponding alteration factors will be derived from the literature. In addition, selected climate projections for the territory of the Federal Republic will be used to assess the anticipated effects of climate change.

Forest fire hazards

The project investigates climate consequences and impacts, based on a risk analysis approach. This includes a clear separation between the following components:

i) description of the (meteorological) dangers caused by climate change,

ii) spatiotemporal identification of the vulnerable receptors ("elements at risk"),

iii) determination of the exposure of the receptors and iv) determination of the impact-effect-relationship (= damage functions).

The analysis of climate effects is carried out using relevant models for the assessment of direct damage. Information on climatic exposure and sensitivity is intertwined with the aid of appropriate damage functions. The result will be the calculation of a potential loss or if possible the annual loss expectation value (EAD).

The concept for vulnerability analysis used in this project is based on the vulnerability understanding defined in the fourth ⁠IPCC⁠ report (AR4). Risk analyses are thereby carried out for selected impact chains identified as relevant in the previous project "Network Vulnerability" (“Netzwerk Vulnerabilität”) and prioritized for the current project. In addition to the reference state, future changes in the potential damage will be calculated on the basis of the expected climatic changes and the damage-reducing influence of different adaptation strategies will be evaluated.

In the previous project "Network Vulnerability", hotspots of vulnerability were identified on the basis of impact chains. In the current project, central economic, social and ecological damages and damage potentials for Germany are to be described and assessed for prioritized impact chains. Where it is technically possible and reasonable potential damage potentials are to be assessed economically.

So far, there exists a lack of an in-depth analysis of effective combinations of adaptation measures. This analysis is necessary to promote the implementation of measures (bundles) in a targeted manner (policy mix). Within the scope of the project, an evaluation framework for the combination of adaptation measures will be developed. Using the examples of prioritized climate impacts, those possible combinations of policy instruments for the implementation of adaptation measures will be identified that significantly reduce the damage potential of these climate effects. Based on this, recommendations for the combination of adaptation measures will be derived. Furthermore, the harm reduction effects of exemplary non-structural adaptation measures will be compared.

In the scope of the project, possibilities for the use of synergies and the avoidance or reduction of conflicts between adaptation instruments will be considered in order to identify combinations of adaptation measures which are as efficient and successful as possible.