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ClimateImpactsOnline

04.02.2016

Hintergrund und Ziele

ClimateImpactsOnline is being developed jointly by Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the company WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH  as a part of the CIES (Climate Impact Expert System) project.

Objective of the web portal is to visualize possible consequences of climate change in Germany concerning the climate, agriculture and forestry, areas of hydrology, energy, tourism and health. Therefore the possibility is given to consider a variety of parameters such as temperature, crop yields or risk of forest fires for example. There are data available for the period 1901-2010 (observed data) and 2011-2100 (simulation data). The parameters selected are shown as color maps for Germany. These information are free for the user of the portal and it thus provides the basis for specific adaptation options in the various sectors.

Laufzeit

September 2012

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Land
  • Deutschland
Bundesland
  • Baden-Württemberg
  • Bayern
  • Berlin
  • Brandenburg
  • Bremen
  • Hamburg
  • Hessen
  • Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
  • Niedersachsen
  • Nordrhein-Westfalen
  • Rheinland-Pfalz
  • Saarland
  • Sachsen
  • Sachsen-Anhalt
  • Schleswig-Holstein
  • Thüringen
Naturräumliche Zuordnung
  • Alb und nordbayerisches Hügelland
  • Alpen
  • Alpenvorland
  • Erzgebirge, Thüringer und Bayrischer Wald
  • Küste
  • Links- und rechtsrheinische Mittelgebirge
  • Nordostdeutsches Tiefland
  • Nordwestdeutsches Tiefland
  • Oberrheingraben
  • Südostdeutsche Becken und Hügel
  • Westdeutsche Tieflandsbucht
  • Zentrale Mittelgebirge und Harz

Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel

Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben

Ansatz und Ergebnisse 

To cover the range of possible future climate changes, two emission scenarios have been used: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (⁠IPCC⁠ 5th Assessment Report, 2013).

The regionalization of the climate scenarios was conducted using the regional climate model STARS developed at PIK. The input for STARS was the average temperature development over Germany between the years 2011 and 2100 as projected by 21 GCMs.

For each RCP-scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6)*, the largest (high), smallest (low) and median temperature increase was determined. For each of the three temperature developments, the temperature trend for each of the reference stations was calculated and used as input for the STARS model.  Finally, for each RCP scenario three model runs were conducted with a 1000 realizations each. From those 1000 realizations, 100 were selected based on the weighted trend of the climatological water balance. Those data sets are the basis for the climatological analysis as well as input data for the simulations of climate impacts.

The regional climate impact has been identified nationwide concerning the sectors agriculture, forestry and water balance. This was done by using a model chain developed at PIK. The links of the model chain are: "STARS STAtistical Analoge Resampling Scheme", "SWIM Soil and Water Intergrated Model", "IRMA Integrated Regional Assessment Model" and "4C-FORESEE Forest Ecosystems in a Changing Environment".

Parameter (Klimasignale)
  • Veränderte Niederschlagsmuster
  • Höhere mittlere Temperaturen
  • Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten
  • Starkniederschlag (inkl. Hagel, Schnee)
  • Trockenheit
Weitere Parameter 

Minimum temperature, global radiation, water balance, duration of sunshine, snow depth, duration of snow days >10 cm and >30cm, number of snow days >10cm and >30cm, summer days and duration, days without precipitation, hot days and duration, frost days and duration, ice days and durations and duration of days with heavy precipitation

Weitere Zeitangaben 

Reference periods for 1901-2100;

decades will be considered: in addition the difference of decades is selectable

Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)

Analyseansatz 

Climate impacts concerning the following sectors and corresponding parameters will be visualized:

  • Agriculture: Huglin Index, wine budburst, wine flowering, wine ripening, wine harvest ripe, late frost risk, yield winter wheat, yield silage maize, yield winter rye, aspen short-rotation coppice, black locust short-rotation coppice
  • Forestry: bud burst (beech, oak, birch), fire danger index, drought index (beech, Douglas fir, oak, spruce, pine), NPP and stem increment (beech, Douglas fir, oak, spruce, pine)
  • Water: evapotranspiration, ground water recharge, total runoff
  • Energy: photovoltaic
  • health and tourism: hot and humid days, swimming days

The online platform serves as a tool for the development of adaptation measures.

Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen

Zeithorizont
  • 2011–2040 (nahe Zukunft)
  • 2021–2050 (nahe Zukunft)
  • 2036–2065
  • 2051–2080 (ferne Zukunft)
  • 2071–2100 (ferne Zukunft)

Wer war oder ist beteiligt?

Förderung / Finanzierung 

funded within the framework of the project "CIES - Climate Impact Expert System" at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and by "Climate-KIC Knowledge & Innovation Community"

Projektleitung 

The web portal ClimeImpacts is a joint product of the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research e. V. and WetterOnline Meteorologische Dienstleistungen GmbH.

Beteiligte/Partner 

Humbolt-Universität zu Berlin, Brandenburg, „eit: Climate_KIC“

Ansprechpartner

PIK – Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
Telegraphenberg A 31
14473 Potsdam

Links

  • ClimateImpactsOnline

Zugehöriges Projekt

  • CLIMREG – Climate Impact Register for Germany
Artikel:

Handlungsfelder:
 agriculture  energy infrastructure  human health and care  tourism industry  water regime and water management  woodland and forestry  cross sectoral Top

„Für Mensch und Umwelt“ ist der Leitspruch des ⁠UBA⁠ und bringt auf den Punkt, wofür wir da sind. In diesem Video geben wir Einblick in unsere Arbeit. 

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Quelladresse (zuletzt bearbeitet am 25.05.2018):https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/node/46190