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Economics of Climate Change: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Measures for Climate Change

14.09.2015

Hintergrund und Ziele

Until now, no systematic cost-benefit analysis has been undertaken for climate change adaptation measures in Germany. This study helps to fill this knowledge gap and provide insights about remaining risks and informational needs. The project developed an assessment framework that goes beyond basic cost-benefit analyses and applied this to 28 different adaptation measures. The study showed that the methodology was applicable in practice and also expanded and consolidated the empirical basis for the economic assessment of adaptation measures. The results give an impression of how useful economic analysis for the assessment, prioritization, and selection of adaptation measures can be.

During the first phase of the project the current state of knowledge is gathered, processed and unified. The second phase deals with the closing of knowledge gaps and the development of the information base. The focus is on developing a methodology that allows a standardized evaluation of adaptation measures. Thus criteria for comparing different adaptation measures will be developed and the (economic) information base, especially on costs and benefits of adaptation measures will be standardized.

The results of the project are a literature review and a final report in which 28 concrete adaptation measures have been analyzed.

Laufzeit

November 2009 bis November 2012

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Land
  • Deutschland

Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel

Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben

Ansatz und Ergebnisse 

No climate scenario has been developed (the emissions scenarios and climate change from 4th AR, IPCC 2007 have been used)

Parameter (Klimasignale)
  • Flusshochwasser
  • Hitzewellen
  • Veränderte Niederschlagsmuster
  • Höhere mittlere Temperaturen
  • Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten
  • Niedrigwasser
  • Starkniederschlag (inkl. Hagel, Schnee)
  • Sturm
  • Trockenheit
Zeithorizont
  • mittelfristig = bis 2050

Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)

Analyseansatz 

The expected impacts of climate change are listed separately in the final report depending on the field of action of the specific adaptation measure.

Describe here, which approach for the vulnerability analysis, risks and/or chances is/was used within your project and which results emerged from it or are expected

Dringlichkeit und Priorisierung von Anpassungsbedarf 

For each of the analyzed adaptation measures the relevance and temporal urgency have been assessed. This clearly demonstrated that caused by their special relevance, their temporal characteristics and no-regrets characters, some measures are rather recommend for an early implementation, such as renaturation measures, soil conserving management, heat warning system, or the civil protection measures.

Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen

Maßnahmen und/oder Strategien 

In order to find suitable adaptation measures for the assessment, the adaptation measures gained from the literature study were examined for their suitability for further analysis in a first step. The main problem is that there are no satisfying data for the majority of possible adaptation measures in Germany until now (missing workable valuation methods or fragmentary data). In order to make a meaningful assessment nevertheless, the limitation was therefore done using selected criteria.

The following adaptation measures have been analyzed in the different fields of action:

  • Transport:
    new road surfaces;
    adaptation of the rail infrastructure to wider temperature ranges and heat;
    weather services in the transport sector;
  • Spatial Planning:
    keeping free of fresh air corridors as an instrument of regional planning;
    green roofs;
    preventive planning for protection against floods and comparison with technical adaption options;
  • Financial Sector:
    development of new insurance products respectively integration of new risks;
    cooperation solutions between state and insurance industry;
  • Water Supply, Water Management, Coastal and Marine Protection:
    coastal protection by dyke increasing and beach nourishment;
    avoiding wastewater discharges to water by additional rain spillway basins;
    adapting the discharge quality of treatment plants to the reduced water conditions of water bodies;
  • Building:
    avoid heat-related health risks by adapting the housing sector;
    protecting buildings from increased storms, heavy rain and wind;
  • Industry:
    information for companies to adapt to climate change;
    avoid heat-related productivity losses by air conditioning;
  • Health:
    heat alert system;
    cooling of hospitals;
  • Soil:
    Soil-friendly conservation farming methods;
  • Biological Diversity:
    design and management of nature reserves and their interlinking;
    restoration of floodplains;
  • Agriculture:
    adapting the irrigation of agricultural land;
    use of appropriate plant varieties;
  • Energy:
    design of power distribution network for extreme weather events;
    cooling of thermal power plants;
  • Tourism:
    maintenance current tourism offers by preparing the slopes;
    diversification of the offers to enable summer tourism or all the year round;
  • Civil Protection:
    education and training of civil protection organizations (civil protection exercises);
    revision of emergency plans.
Zeithorizont
  • 2011–2040 (nahe Zukunft)
  • 2036–2065
  • 2071–2100 (ferne Zukunft)
Konfliktpotential / Synergien / Nachhaltigkeit 

For each of the considered adaptation measure, the interactions will be assessed and analysed to what extent the measures involved may have a beneficial or adverse influence on each other. The effects between adaptation measures will be evaluated and aggregated by a matrix. By considering such synergies and links but also overlaps and conflicts, measures bundle can be identified which are mutually dependent or act on different areas of activity simultaneously.

Schritt 4: Maßnahmen planen und umsetzen

Kosten 

As a first step the costs and benefits of selected adaptation measures are detected at the individual measure level. The emphasis is on measures of the public respectively the private-public sector. Since costs and benefits often take place at different times, the timing of costs and benefits and the issue of discounting need to be considered.

The cost analysis is based on an investment appraisal. The economic costs of the action will be estimated quantitatively and qualitatively: one-time investment costs, running costs and transaction costs. In addition, other cost components are taken into account:

  • Other economically relevant consequences of a measure, e.g. negative effects on competitiveness and innovation.
  • Quantitative and qualitative assessment of external costs for the measure, e.g. negative impact on the groundwater resources by agricultural irrigation, reduced well-being in air-conditioned spaces, reduced view caused by protective structures, etc.

In a second step the cost and benefit considerations will be standardised, in order to compare key criteria. The comparison will show either the total cost and the overall benefit (as a net present value for the whole life- and effective duration of a measure), or the derived average cost per year of the life- and effective duration of a measure (annuities).

Wer war oder ist beteiligt?

Förderung / Finanzierung 

German Environment Agency (UBA)

Projektleitung 

Ecologic Institute, Berlin

Beteiligte/Partner 

INFRAS, Zürich; ISI – Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe

Ansprechpartner

Ecologic Institut gemeinnützige GmbH
Pfalzburger Straße 43/44
10717 Berlin

Links

  • Literature review: Ökonomische Aspekte der Anpassung an den Klimawandel (German)
  • Economics of Climate Change: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Measures for Climate Change
  • Final report: Costs and benefits of adaptation measures in Germany (German)
Artikel:

Handlungsfelder:
 agriculture  biological diversity  buildings  civil protection and disaster management  coastal and marine protection  energy infrastructure  financial services industry  human health and care  industry and commerce  soil  water regime and water management  cross sectoral Top

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