⁠Emission⁠ scenario B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (⁠IPCC⁠) is used. Modelling is carried out using the WETTREG regional statistical climate model, which is based on modelling of the ECHAM5 global climate model at the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology.

Results: Average annual temperature increase in Bavaria of 1.8°C, average annual reduction in precipitation in Bavaria of 40mm, change in seasonal distribution of temperature and precipitation, more frequent storms, droughts and periods of heat, more heavy rain events, increasing variability of climate.

late and early frosts, cold winters, temperature drops or wet snow

The climate effects resulting from increased heat and drought on the one hand and from late and early frosts, cold winters, temperature drops or wet snow on the other are studied for the forest ecosystem and the ecosystem services provided. The effects are differentiated for different types of trees and for different locations.

In Bavaria, the beech has lower sensitivity than the spruce, which has high sensitivity and comparatively low resilience. Bavaria is primarily a beech area and the majority of the natural or semi-natural beech forests are well equipped for climate change. However, susceptibility is at its greatest at the edges of the climatic envelope. By contrast, non-natural spruce stocks and forests are at particular risk in dry and warm areas. The cultivation risk is lower in cool and wet regions, and the main hazards are insects, wind blast and drought.

Background: Here, the term susceptibility or vulnerability to climate changes describes the interactions between the impacts (climate effects) and the different conditions of the forests. The forests' susceptibility depends on the tree species used in forestry and their distance from the edge of their climatic envelopes.

Urgency of need for action: For areas with less susceptible stocks due to more favourable mixes of tree species, there is not yet any necessity to act. Therefore, adaptation measures should concentrate on particularly susceptible stocks. Due to the rapid climate change, there is no alternative to forest conversion and concentration on the main affected areas.

In forestry, adaptation (e.g. of tree species) to local conditions has been an essential element of managing forests in the past. ⁠Adaptation⁠ measures for a changing climate are therefore taken regularly as part of normal stock rejuvenation.

The forest conversion programme is intended to speed up adaptation to climate change. Particularly vulnerable forests need to be adapted to cope with changes. The focus is on a natural future forest community, keeping a sufficient distance away from the edges of the so-called "climatic envelopes" of the relevant tree species. Mixed stocks enable the risk to be spread.