Three qualitative climate scenarios are used: "Good", "As now" and "Poor". They are based on the HadCM3 climate model. In addition, "shock scenarios" are analysed, e.g. for changes in thermohaline circulation, changes in land use and changes in ground moisture (see ALARM project).

Temperature and precipitation with seasonal differentiation

2050

The effects of climate change on biodiversity in Europe can also be observed. For example, the ranges of some species, the flowering time of various plants and bird migration times are changing. Overall, the project studies all climate effects on biodiversity.

Ecosystems are more resilient or more resistant and more capable of adapting to climate change if they are in a "healthy" condition. This id critical both to maintain biodiversity and for human prosperity and wellbeing, as they depend on the services provided by functional ecosystems.

In addition to climate change, maintaining natural adaptation capacity also includes reducing "conventional" burdens on biodiversity, such as intensification of land use, separation of habitats, depletion of natural resources, introduction of invasive species and environmental pollution. In the absence of special efforts, biodiversity in Europe is reducing as the species composition is increasingly uniform and dominated by widespread species and, as a result, the provision of essential ecosystem services can no longer be guaranteed.

The Natura 2000 conservation area system from the European ⁠Flora⁠ and ⁠Fauna⁠ Habitats Directive can also act as an adaptation measure for climate change, as it gives habitats and species an appropriate protected status. This conservation area network provides space for nature and helps to preserve the natural adaptation options. However, maintaining the resilience of species and habitats and natural adaptation capacity outside these conservation areas calls for measures to ensure the connectivity and coherence of ranges. This would enable species to migrate and spread if their "climate area" shifts.

The objective is to improve the protection status of plants and animals, in order to reduce biodiversity losses. Appropriate conservation measures within and outside the Natura 2000 conservation areas can reduce the risks of climate change for species and habitats and improve their adaptation capacity.

2050