CLIMAR – Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities
Hintergrund und Ziele
Based on the IPCC recommendations, the Kyoto Protocol and relevant national strategy papers, it is clear that specific research on the vulnerability of marine ecosystems and their users is necessary. Mitigation measures aim to provide long-term solutions to the problem, while adaptation measures are necessary to deal with the primary and secondary effects of climate change in the North Sea. In addition, instruments are required that help to investigate adaptation measures in terms of their sustainability, their influence on marine activities and their relationship with preventive measures and sectoral policies.
The main objective of the project is to devise an evaluation framework for adaptation scenarios and measures as a response to influences induced by climate change. This data acquisition framework is intended to cover the entire North Sea environment (ecological, social and economic). The evaluation tool will enable the economic, social and ecological value of the relevant adaptation measures to be assessed and subjected to a sustainability test.
Based on the two case studies combined with an analysis of the applicable policy and legal framework, recommendations will be drawn up for future North Sea policy and the different socio-economic activities. A generally applicable "sustainability evaluation tool" will be generated as a final outcome of the project.
Laufzeit
bisUntersuchungsregion/-raum
Land
- Belgien
Naturräumliche Zuordnung
- Küste
Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel
Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben
Ansatz und Ergebnisse
Different climate scenarios for Belgium have been developed based on literature studies, data analysis and climate scenarios for the neighboring countries. In a moderate scenario, sea level rises by 60 cm by 2100; in a worst-case scenario up to 2 meters by 2100.
Numerical models in the field of hydrology/hydrodynamics: OPTOS-BCZ, mu-WAVE, SWAN, mu-STM
Parameter (Klimasignale)
- Veränderte Niederschlagsmuster
- Höhere mittlere Temperaturen
- Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten
- Sturm
Weitere Parameter
water temperature, current and tide amplitude, hydrology, morphology
Weitere Zeitangaben
medium to long-term scenarios
Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)
Analyseansatz
Primary effects: sea level rise, increasing storm frequency, increasing precipitation, coastal erosion, temperature changes, changes in salinity
Secondary effects for: fishing, transport and ports, dredging, flood risk, wind energy
Describe here, which approach for the vulnerability analysis, risks and/or chances is/was used within your project and which results emerged from it or are expected
Ansatz und Risiken / Chancen
The intensive use of the North Sea has the consequence that the vulnerability of its ecological, sociological and economic community due to climate change is high.
Vulnerability is understood as the risk of harm, with sensitivity/resilience and adaptive capacity taken into account.
Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen
Maßnahmen und/oder Strategien
The detailed study and evaluation of possible adaptation measures will be carried out in two case studies on coastal floods and the fishing sector.
Zeithorizont
- 2071–2100 (ferne Zukunft)
Konfliktpotential / Synergien / Nachhaltigkeit
There is a need for sustainable approaches for the North Sea in relation to the effects of climate change.
Wer war oder ist beteiligt?
Förderung / Finanzierung
The project is being funded by the Belgian research programme "Science for a sustainable Development", which is under the management of the Belgian Science Policy Office. The budget for the first phase of the project from 15/12/2006 to 31/01/2009 is some €550,000.
Projektleitung
The Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM)
Beteiligte/Partner
ECOLAS NV;
The Maritime Institute (M);
Flanders Hydraulic Research (FHR);
ILVO-Fisheries;
Ansprechpartner
Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences (RBINS)
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models (MUMM)
Gulledelle 100
B-1200 Brussels
