PRUDENCE - Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects
Hintergrund und Ziele
The project produces and provides information about future climate development for decision makers in European governments, non-governmental organisations, industry and the general public. The aim is to include the possible risks of climate change in the assessment.
Although future climate projections do exist, they are subject to huge uncertainty and do not provide sufficient regional detail. The insufficient detail makes it more difficult to carry out a realistic simulation of extreme events and to illustrate detailed geographical differences in climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation over heterogeneous areas such as the Alps, the Mediterranean region or Scandinavia.
The objective of the project is coordinate climate analyses and illustrate their benefits in detailed climate modelling for Europe. Because of heterogeneity of possible climate changes and the associated effects, expertise from climate modellers, climate effect researchers, social and political scientists across Europe is utilised to ensure that the currently available climate change simulations have more comprehensive applicability. In addition, the uncertainty of climate projections and resulting climate effects for Europe are quantified.
Laufzeit
bisUntersuchungsregion/-raum
Land
- europaweit
Bundesland
- Baden-Württemberg
- Bayern
- Hessen
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- Nordrhein-Westfalen
- Rheinland-Pfalz
- Schleswig-Holstein
Naturräumliche Zuordnung
- Links- und rechtsrheinische Mittelgebirge
- Nordostdeutsches Tiefland
- Nordwestdeutsches Tiefland
- Westdeutsche Tieflandsbucht
Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel
Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben
Ansatz und Ergebnisse
The analyses comprise four very detailed atmospheric circulation models, eight regional climate models and various climate effects models. The IPCC emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 are used.
The main product of the project is the PRUDENCE database, containing daily values for simulated climate variables from over 50 climate simulations for today and for the period 2071-2100. All simulations have a horizontal scale of 50x50 km or less. The project's ""Data distribution front page"", which can be used to access the climate data and its description, is located at http://prudence.dmi.dk/public/DDC/index.html.
Parameter (Klimasignale)
- Höhere mittlere Temperaturen
Weitere Parameter
Frequency and extent of extreme weather events caused by higher temperatures, more intensive hydrological cycle and heightened atmospheric processes.
Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)
Analyseansatz
Climate effects are studied for hydrological processes, e.g. the Rhine and Baltic, for agriculture, for forestry and for ecological relationships.
Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen
Maßnahmen und/oder Strategien
The results can support the development of essential adaptation strategies, as they illustrate the need for these strategies.
Zeithorizont
- 2071–2100 (ferne Zukunft)
Wer war oder ist beteiligt?
Förderung / Finanzierung
5th Framework Programme for Research of the European Union
Projektleitung
Danish Meteorological Institute, Kopenhagen, Denmark
Beteiligte/Partner
Cooperation in Germany:
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (German Aerospace Centre), Institute of Atmospheric Physics;
GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Institute of Coastal Research;
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in total 21 European partners)
Ansprechpartner
Danmarks Meteoroliske Institut
Lyngbyvej 100
DK-2100 Kopenhagen
