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Mistra-SWECIA - Swedish Research Programme on Climate, Impacts and Adaptation

10.08.2021

Hintergrund und Ziele

Mistra-SWECIA is a Swedish initiative for climate system and climate-economy modelling, as well as climate impacts, land use and adaptation processes. The programme targets global and regional climate models, climate-economy aspects and impact studies, particularly with respect to water resources, ecosystems and ecosystem services. Knowledge on these aspects is crucial for the adjustment process. The adaptation process itself is also in the focus of this programme. It is seen as a continuous process responding to new information, insights, successive rounds of planning, execution and monitoring of decisions.

In the course of the programme, new interdisciplinary models and approaches will be forged in collaboration with other research and stakeholder networks. The aim is an improved capacity for advanced analysis and assessment to support society’s adaptation.

The programme includes 4 projects:

1) Climate modelling

2) Climate-economy modelling

3) Impact modelling and applications

4) The process of adaptation to climate change

The overarching aim is to create a capacity for advanced analysis and consistent assessment of climate, economy and impacts. Global and regional models of climate, economy and impacts are the main tools, together with data on natural and human processes and systems. The application of this capacity also involves a stringent line of research on the adaptation process itself, focussing on learning from experience, putting new knowledge into use, identifying bottlenecks and opportunities.

Laufzeit

Januar 2008 bis Dezember 2011

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Land
  • Schweden

Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel

Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben

Ansatz und Ergebnisse 

The climate models used in the first project are:

- EC-EARTH: This is an Earth System Model that has been developed by a consortium of European Weather Services and university groups. It is based on the seasonal prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and currently consists of a model for the atmosphere and a model for the ocean that communicate with each other through the Oasis coupler. Additional modules (chemistry, vegetation) are in development.

- RCA: A regional climate model.

- EMICs(Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity) describe most of the processes implicit in comprehensive climate models, albeit in a simpler form. They explicitly simulate the interactions among several components of the climate system, including biogeochemical cycles, and at the same time they are simple enough to allow for long-term climate simulations. Just as with the comprehensive models, but in contrast to simple energy-balance models, the number of degrees of freedom of an EMIC exceeds the number of adjustable parameters by several orders of magnitude.

Weitere Parameter 

all parameters of the climate models

Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)

Analyseansatz 

An essential part of Mistra-SWECIA is to better understand the feedbacks between the human economic system and the natural climate system over long periods of time. To do that requires models of the two-way interaction between these two global systems. It is important to account for regional disparities, both on the economic side and the climate side. Because people in different regions live under different social and economic conditions, even the same amount of global climate change would affect different regions in different ways. Moreover, regional climates will change in different ways from the global mean.

Describe here, which approach for the vulnerability analysis, risks and/or chances is/was used within your project and which results emerged from it or are expected

Ansatz und Risiken / Chancen 

One work package in project 4 investigates the current preparedness and ability of government and private stakeholders to incorporate climate adaptation in their day-to-day and longer-term policies and strategies. In addition, it analyses to what institutional, cultural and policy factors the differences in social learning and adaptive capacity can be attributed. The work package identifies barriers and opportunities for integrating climate adaptation into economic sectors, and explores the roles and responsibilities of different stakeholders in removing the barriers and seizing the opportunities, thus promoting such integration.

Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen

Maßnahmen und/oder Strategien 

Project 4 is aimed at improving our knowledge of what makes people and organizations adapt successfully, and how they might overcome possible barriers to a successful adaptation. The project starts from the premise that the results of climate and impact models, whilst effective in raising stakeholders' awareness of the need to act, are insufficient to inform adaptation decisions. If they are to be used effectively, model results must be complemented by an understanding of how stakeholders make decisions. Project 4 therefore analyses the process of adaptation.

Wer war oder ist beteiligt?

Förderung / Finanzierung 

MISTRA: Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research

Projektleitung 

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, The Rossby Centre

Beteiligte/Partner 

Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University;
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University;
Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University;
Stockholm Environment Institute;

Ansprechpartner

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
SE - 601 76 Norrköping

Links

  • Project page Mistra-SWECIA

Zugehöriges Projekt

  • PRUDENCE - Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects
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Quelladresse (zuletzt bearbeitet am 20.12.2022):https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/themen/klima-energie/anpassung-an-den-klimawandel/arbeitshilfen-zur-anpassung/projektkatalog/pk-stub-for91a6e76e-6ab1-4052-87be-19465a6f0c02en