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ATLANTIS - Atlantic Sea Level Rise: Adaptation to Imaginable Worst Case Climate Change

05.08.2021

Hintergrund und Ziele

The ATLANTIS project studies the effects of rising sea levels of five to six metres, due to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, for the Rhône delta, the Netherlands and the Thames estuary region. In particular, the social consequences of climate effects and adaptation to "conceivable worst case scenarios" for climate change will be studied.

In addition to a scenario for each of the three regions, a formal risk assessment will be carried out and an approach selected that takes account of social values. The theory of optimum management for disasters will also be applied.

In the three case studies, the climate effect analysis will be combined with extensive consultations with experts and stakeholders, with the focus on what is viewed (by stakeholders) as most crucial, as opposed to what is quantifiable.

Laufzeit

November 2002 bis November 2004

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Land
  • Frankreich
  • Großbritannien
  • Niederlande
Räumliche Auflösung / Zusatzinformationen 

Thames Estuary (England),
Rhone Estuary (France),
delta of the rivers Rhine and Maas (Netherlands)

Schritte im Prozess zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel

Schritt 1: Klimawandel verstehen und beschreiben

Ansatz und Ergebnisse 

As part of the project, three primarily qualitative scenarios have been developed, which have to consistently reflect the complex implications for Marseille, Amsterdam or London. Thus, the focus of the study is not on the facts of a five to six metre rise in sea levels, but on its significance for people.

The scenarios were developed in a series of interviews and workshops with stakeholders. The central scenario predicts an additional rise in sea levels of five metres within a century.

Parameter (Klimasignale)
  • Meeresspiegelanstieg und Sturmfluten
Zeithorizont
  • langfristig = bis 2100 und darüber hinaus

Schritt 2a: Risiken erkennen und bewerten (Klimafolgen/-wirkungen)

Analyseansatz 

The social effects of a five to six metre sea level rise will be analysed. All three case study areas would be severely affected by a five to six metre rise in sea levels.

Based on a risk analysis and cost/benefit analysis, a reduction in greenhouse gases is essential to avoid the risk of the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsing. However, the probability of complete melting has not been calculated.

Schritt 3: Maßnahmen entwickeln und vergleichen

Maßnahmen und/oder Strategien 

Study of the hypothetical adaptation measures in the three case study areas based on stakeholder consultations. The objective is to assess the social consequences of climate effects and adaptation to "conceivable worst case climate scenarios" in three case studies.

Zeithorizont
  • 2071–2100 (ferne Zukunft)

Wer war oder ist beteiligt?

Förderung / Finanzierung 

European Commission: research programme 5

Projektleitung 

Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University

Beteiligte/Partner 

Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg
Stockholm Environment Institute
Institute for Environment Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
Symlog Institute, Cachan

Ansprechpartner

Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung
Bundesstraße 55
20146 Hamburg

Links

  • Project website of the University of Hamburg
Artikel:

Handlungsfelder:
 coastal and marine protection Top

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Quelladresse (zuletzt bearbeitet am 20.12.2022):https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/node/16156