There are three qualitative climate scenarios (corresponding to "good", "same as now", and "bad" ). The HadCM3 climate model provides the baseline.

In addition, different "storylines" will be defined, narrative descriptions of alternative future pathways of the factors of socio-economic context, demographic development, macroeconomics, technological development, consumption patterns, energy and transport development, agriculture, waste and resource flows, geopolitical and international cooperation, trade and globalisation, migration, and availability of natural resources The three storylines are named BAMBU (Business-As-Might-Be-Usual), GRAS (Growth Applied Strategy), and SEDG (Sustainable European Development Goal). In addition, so-called "shock scenarios" are studied, e.g., changes in the thermohaline circulation, changes in land use, and changes in soil moisture (see ALARM project).

cloud cover
growing degree days
evapotranspiration

atmospheric vapour pressureGeographical reference

In addition to the assessment of risks arising from the climate change, the project also considers the risks of environmental chemicals, biological invasions and pollinator loss. For the terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, the impacts of the climate change will be expressed locally in the form of changes to species composition, diversity and structure, as well as altered dynamics, which can have consequences for biodiversity

Background:
The loss of biodiversity can lead to in the impairment of current ecosystem services valued by the human population.

Objectives:
To mitigate the adverse effects of a curtailment of ecosystem services on society. This is to be achieved with the aid of a risk assessment, comprising hazard identification, risk estimate, risk management and risk communication.