Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe
Ziel der Studie
quantification of climate change impacts on economy
Erscheinungsjahr
Untersuchungsregion/-raum
Untersuchungsraum EU
Räumliche Auflösung
Rastergröße: 50*50km
Verwendete Klimamodelle / Ensembles
Emissionsszenarien SRES: A2, B2
Klimamodelle HadAM3-HIRHAM, ECHAM4-RCAO
Ensembles no
Anzahl der Modellläufe not documented
Regionales Klimamodell
not documented
Weitere Parameter
Temperature, Precipitation; sea level rise
Klimawirkungen
Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
- Landwirtschaft
"Agriculture: 2080s scenarios show considerable regional disparities in impacts on agriculture. Southern Europe would experience yield losses that would become relatively high under the 5.4 °C scenario - about 25%. The Central Europe regions would experience moderate changes in yield. In all scenarios Northern Europe would benefit from positive yield changes, and, to a lesser extent, the British Isles would benefit in the 4.1 °C and 5.4 °C scenarios. These effects result from the dominance of the longer growing season. A group of countries (e.g., Ireland, Belgium, Germany, France and the Netherlands) may be at risk if limitations on the use of fertilizers in agriculture are considered. Romania would experience higher potential gain, partly because of the considerable weight of agriculture in its economy." (Ciscar et al. 2010: 3)
Methodischer Ansatz
Kurzbeschreibung des methodischen Ansatzes
The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework.
Analysekonzeptansatz Eigener Ansatz
Komponenten im Analysekonzept Klimatischer Einfluss, Sensitivität, Klimawirkung, Vulnerabilität
Methodik zur Operationalisierung Quantitative Wirkmodelle (z.B. Abflussmodelle), Proxy-Indikatoren
Participants
Herausgeber Schellnhuber (PIK)
Kontakt
Client: European Commission
Researcher: Juan-Carlos Ciscar, László Szabó, Antonio Soria (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Center, Seville), Ana Iglesias (Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid), Luc Feyen (Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Center, Ispra), Denise Van Regemorter (Center for Economic Studies, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven), Alvaro Moreno (International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development, Maastricht University, Maastricht), Bas Amelung (Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen), Robert Nicholls (School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton), Paul Watkiss (Paul Watkiss Associates, Oxford), Ole B. Christensen (Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen), Rutger Dankers (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter), Luis Garrote (Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid), Clare M. Goodess (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich), Alistair Hunt (Department of Economics, University of Bath, Bath), Julie Richards (ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton)
Bibliographische Angaben
Juan-Carlos Ciscara; Ana Iglesiasb; Luc Feyenc; László Szabóa; Denise Van Regemortera; Bas Amelunge; Robert Nichollsg; Paul Watkissh; Ole B. Christenseni; Rutger Dankersc; Luis Garrotek; Clare M. Goodessl; Alistair Huntm; Alvaro Morenoe; Julie Richardsn; Antonio Soriaa 2010: Physical and economic consequences of climate chance in Europe. Brussels
