UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis report: priorities for the next five years

Ziel der Studie

Ziel der Studie ist es, die Dringlichkeit von zukünftigem Handlungsbedarf und Forschung zu Risiken und Chancen des Klimawandels in den nächsten fünf Jahren aufzuzeigen und dem Vereinigten Königreich bei der Priorisierung ihrer Ressourcen zu helfen. Der Synthesebericht zeigt sechs Handlungsfelder auf, die mithilfe des Committee on Climate Change für das Vereinigte Königreich identifiziert worden sind. Die Analyse umfasst die Effekte des Klimawandels, bereits umgesetzte Anpassungsmaßnahmen und die Auswirkungen ökonomischer und demografischer Entwicklungstrends.

Erscheinungsjahr

Untersuchungsregion/-raum

Die Klimastudie analysiert Klimawirkungen, trifft jedoch keine raumbezogenen Aussagen für Deutschland insgesamt oder für Teilräume innerhalb Deutschlands.
Untersuchungsraum Vereinigtes Königreich

Verwendete Klimamodelle / Ensembles

Regionales Klimamodell 

UKCP09

Weitere Parameter 

Temperatur, Meeresspiegel, Niederschlag, Wind

Klimawirkungen

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Bauwesen
    • Schäden an Gebäuden, Bauwerken und zugehöriger Infrastruktur
    • Gebäudefunktionalität

„Residual risks: even with current investment plans the residual risk of flooding will remain high across the UK. Improved flood defences will not be possible or affordable in every area, and with climate change a greater disparity in risk between protected and non-protected areas may emerge.“ (S. 32)

„In the absence of adaptation, annual UK heatrelated mortality is projected to increase by two-thirds by the 2020s, by around 250% by the 2050s, and by more than 500% by the 2080s from a current baseline of 2,000 heat-related deaths per year. This is due to the effects of climate change and the growing, ageing population, with warmer temperatures having the larger impact (assuming a medium emissions scenario). There is evidence that people lack a basic understanding of the risks to health from indoor high temperatures, and are therefore less likely to take measures to safeguard their and their dependents’ wellbeing. Insulatinghomes to improve thermal efficiency needs to be undertaken carefully to avoid increasing the risk of overheating.“ (S.34)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Biologische Vielfalt
    • Arten und Populationen
    • Biotope, Habitate, Ökosysteme

„Freshwater species: increasing water temperatures could have negative effects on sensitive species like salmon and arctic charr, especially in locations with reduced water quality or when combined with low flows. Further monitoring and research are needed to guide appropriate policy responses.“ (S.37)

„The impacts of climate change are already discernible across terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems. Many species are shifting their range in response to warmer conditions both on land and in the seas. The capacity of species and ecosystems to adjust and adapt will, however, be increasingly constrained by existing pressures, including habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution of land, air and water, over-exploitation of terrestrial, freshwater and marine resources, and the spread of invasive species.“ (S.38)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Menschliche Gesundheit
    • Hitze- und kälteabhängige Erkrankungen oder Mortalitäten
    • Vektorübertragene Krankheiten
    • Gesundheitsinfrastruktur

„Average and extreme temperatures across the UK are expected to increase further in the coming decades. Heatwave events such as in 2003 are projected to become the norm in the UK by the 2040s. For a 2°C rise in global mean temperature, the increase in temperatures under heatwave conditions in Europe is projected to increase by between 1.4 - 7.5°C. The proportion of the UK population aged over 75 is projected to increase from 8% in 2015 to 18% by 2085. Older people are more likely to be adversely affected by high temperatures, but above 35°C, all age groups are at risk of health impacts.“ (S.34)

„Vector-borne diseases affecting human health: higher temperatures will lead to an increased risk of invasion to the UK of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus – the vector of Chikungunya virus, dengue fever and Zika virus. The current risk remains low, but may increase in the future. There is also a risk of expansion of the range of Culex modestus, already present in south-east England, which is a known vector of West Nile virus. Projections for the 2080s, under a variety of emission scenarios, only indicate a small risk of malaria transmission in the UK.“ (S. 42)

„People and communitiies: as well as residential homes and other buildings, a significant number of hospitals and other care facilities are located in exposed areas. The evidence suggests that the long-term health and wellbeing impacts of flood events are considerable and more research is needed to assess and understand how best to manage these.“ (S. 32)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Küsten-und Meeresschutz
    • Küsten, Wattenmeere, Ästuare
    • Marine Artenzusammensetzung

„Loss of coastal habitats: due to rising sea levels. Habitats such as saltmarsh and sand dunes provide valuable natural buffering from wave energy as well as their importance for wildlife. The widespread loss of these habitats, as they become squeezed between rising sea levels and manmade defence structures, will have implications for the long-term viability of coastal defences and the communities they protect.“ (S.38)

„Loss of marine fisheries and wildlife: due to ocean acidification and increasing sea temperatures. In the North Sea warm water plankton species are replacing previously dominant cold water species. These changes may have significant implications for other parts of the marine food-chain.“ (S.38)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Landwirtschaft
    • Ertrag und Qualität der Ernteprodukte

„Agriculture: projections suggest that, without further action, the availability of water for irrigation will become a serious limiting factor to agricultural production and quality, particularly for growing cereals and potatoes. Many of the most productive regions of Great Britain at present, for example in Kent and the East Anglia fens, are also where projections of both soil aridity and water scarcity are severe.” (S.36)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Industrie und Gewerbe
    • Betriebsanlagen (Assets)
    • Produktivität und Logistik
    • Rohstoff-, Wasser- und Energieversorgung
    • Wettbewerbsfähigkeit

„Business: companies operating in flood risk areas are exposed to direct damages to buildings and assets, and indirect impacts on sales, production, supply chains and reputations. Businesses not directly at risk but located in affected towns may suffer knock-on impacts from disrupted infrastructure and custom being postponed or lost to competitors elsewhere.“ (S. 33)

„Energy generation and industry: some scenarios for energy generation suggest freshwater use for cooling will rise significantly, especially if there were widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage in inland areas (for example if CCS were fitted to existing power stations in the River Trent catchment). Some water-intensive industries are clustered in areas at risk of water scarcity, such as paper manufacturing in Kent and chemicals manufacturing in the north west of England.“ (S. 37)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Tourismuswirtschaft
    • Touristische Nachfrage

„Health, wellbeing and tourism: warmer temperatures may encourage more active transport (such as cycling and walking) and increased numbers of visitors to the UK’s national parks, beaches and open spaces. It may affect peoples’ choice of travel destination, both in displacing UK foreign travel and encouraging tourists from overseas. However, these effects are likely to be dominated by wider socio-economic trends such as household disposable income and currency exchange rates.“ (S.44)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Wald- und Forstwirtschaft
    • Vitalität / Mortalitätseffekte

„Pests and diseases affecting plants (including trees) and livestock: […] Tree diseases also have potentially large impacts under climate change, including Phytophthora ramorum and evergreen diseases such as needle blight and green spruce aphid that are already present and increasing in extent.“

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Verkehr
    • Verkehrsinfrastruktur

„Urban water management: climate change is expected to lead to significant increases in heavy rainfall, with sewers in many urban areas already at or over capacity. More action is needed protect individual properties whilst also beginning to redesign urban landscapes (such as through the use of sustainable drainage approaches) to be able to cope with more intense patterns of rainfall.“ (S.32)

Klimawirkungen in Handlungsfeld
  • Wasser
    • Grundwasserzustand
    • Wasserverfügbarkeit
    • Abwasserbewirtschaftung / Entwässerung

„Natural environment: reduced water availability in the summer will impact the ecology of rivers and lakes, unless there is further action to improve the condition of water bodies and to encourage the wider uptake of measures to reduce the impacts of low flows. More research is required on the implications of climate change for setting minimum environmental flow levels.“

„The Evidence Report identifies risks arising from water scarcity for England, Scotland and Wales. A number of separate but related water scarcity risks will arise due to changes in rainfall, increases in potential evaporation and soil aridity, coupled with projections of continuing population growth.“ (S.36)

„Urban water management: climate change is expected to lead to significant increases in heavy rainfall, with sewers in many urban areas already at or over capacity. More action is needed protect individual properties whilst also beginning to redesign urban landscapes (such as through the use of sustainable drainage approaches) to be able to cope with more intense patterns of rainfall.“ (S.32)

Methodischer Ansatz

Kurzbeschreibung des methodischen Ansatzes 

Anhand von Beobachtungen der vergangenen Jahre können Erkenntnisse zur Temperatur, Meeresspiegel, Niederschlag und Wind in den Vereinigten Staaten gezogen werden. Mit Klimaprojektionen werden die Erkenntnisse zur durchschnittlichen Klimaänderung überprüft. Weiterhin werden Klimafolgen zu sechs verschiedenen Handlungsfeldern als auch Chancen und Risiken für diese ermittelt.

Analysekonzeptansatz kein Ansatz genannt
Komponenten im Analysekonzept  Klimatischer Einfluss, Klimawirkung, Vulnerabilität, Chancen und Risiken, Anpassungskapazität
Methodik zur Operationalisierung Proxy-Indikatoren

Wer war oder ist beteiligt?

Herausgeber Committee on Climate Change
Kontakt 

Lord John Krebs,
Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change, London

Bibliographische Angaben 

ASC (2016): UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report: priorities for the next five years, Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (Hg.), London: 86 Seiten.

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Handlungsfelder:
 Bauwesen  Biologische Vielfalt  Industrie und Gewerbe  Küsten- und Meeresschutz  Landwirtschaft  Menschliche Gesundheit  Wald- und Forstwirtschaft  Wasserhaushalt, Wasserwirtschaft