FiW-I-2: Incidence of storms and floods

The picture shows a man sitting cross-legged on a sofa and talking on the phone. There is water on the floor of the room. The man points reproachfully at the surface of the water.Click to enlarge
The risk that the flat or house could be damaged by climate change impacts is underestimated
Source: Photograph: © Andrey Popov / stock.adobe.com

2019 Monitoring Report on the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change

Table of Contents

 

FiW-I-2: Incidence of storms and floods

Despite extreme weather events in recent years, the German population’s risk awareness is still very low. Not even a quarter of citizens who responded to the survey appreciate that their house or home is at genuine risk of damage from storms or floodwater. Consequently, their willingness to take out an insurance policy which covers climate-related risks is just as low.

Three stacking columns represent the assessment of being affected by storms and floods for the years 2012, 2014 and 2016. The percentage of respondents is read below for the respective categories with ascending year: not affected at all: 36, 36 and 30 percent; less affected: 45, 41 and 48 percent, strongly affected: 17, 16 and 17 percent, very strongly affected: 2, 4 and 3. From 2014 onwards, there is also the category don't know.
FiW-I-2: Incidence of storms and floods

Three stacking columns represent the assessment of being affected by storms and floods for the years 2012, 2014 and 2016. The percentage of respondents is read below for the respective categories with ascending year: not affected at all: 36, 36 and 30 percent; less affected: 45, 41 and 48 percent, strongly affected: 17, 16 and 17 percent, very strongly affected: 2, 4 and 3. From 2014 onwards, there is also the category don't know.

Source: BMUB & UBA (Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland)
 

Risk awareness – key to adequate provision

In what way human beings perceive hazards or risks, how they estimate potential impacts and what type of provident action they need to take, varies from one individual to another. Apart from hard facts – scientifically proven and measurable – which determine the extent of risk, there are numerous subjective components that can have considerable influence on the perception of risks. Such perceptions of risk can often be distorted. On one hand, they can be characterised by unrealistic optimism and the illusion to have everything under control, on the other, they can be influenced by impressions derived from current disastrous events which have triggered great concerns and can lead to an overestimate of individual risks.

In a representative public survey carried out every two years on behalf of the UBA, entitled Environmental Awareness in Germany (Umweltbewusstsein in Deutschland)“I respondents, since 2012, make estimates (among other statements), to what extent they might be personally affected by the consequences of climate change. In 2012 81 % of respondents stated that they perceive little or no risk that floodwater events and storms might damage their house or home. In the subsequent survey this estimate had changed little: In 2014 77 % and in 2016 78 % perceived themselves little or not at all affected. It is true to say, however, that the values collected permit only restricted interpretation as they are not linked to information on the actual exposure of respondents to the climate change impacts concerned.

Other, similar types of survey have produced similar outcomes regarding estimated risks.

For example, the GDV, conducted a forsa survey in June 2013, in other words, shortly after the floodwater disaster, to carry out an opinion poll on the population’s risk awareness. The outcome showed that as many as 90 % of Germans think there is little risk they might be personally affected by floodwater, storm or other natural hazards.81

However, reality paints a different picture, for in 2016 floodwater also affected many people who live far away from those major rivers and considered themselves safe. Even flooding caused by heavy rain can cause severe damage far away from areas at risk from floodwater. In this context, it is worth mentioning the heavy-rain events of summer 2017 which caused flooding and major damage for example in Berlin and Brandenburg.

An awareness of one’s own risk and the potential of becoming personally affected – as well as the need to have access to practical everyday courses of action – should motivate individuals to take every possible precaution to minimise their risks and to take adequate precautions to ensure their safety. Consequently, it is important that the actual risks associated with climate change be appreciated by as many people as possible thus enabling them to assess those risks in a realistic manner. To this end, support is available from an internet-based information tool entitled ‘Kompass Naturgefahren’ (natural hazards compass) which informs tenants, proprietors and companies of the extent their building is at risk from floodwater. This tool will also inform users of any other risks that might emanate from other natural hazards such as heavy rain, storm, lightning strikes or earthquakes. The ‘Kompass Naturgefahren’ tool is intended to sharpen people’s awareness of the risks from natural hazards and summon them to make their own provisions. This service is currently available in the Free State Saxony as well as Saxony-Anhalt, Lower Saxony and Berlin.

For the insurance industry, the population’s and companies’ appropriate risk awareness is one of the most important foundations of their business. Only if this awareness is widespread and deeply rooted and if consequently many people take out adequate insurance, will it be possible to form sufficiently large risk communities for an insurance company to facilitate affordable insurance premiums.

In addition to having very little risk awareness, many people believe themselves adequately insured for damage caused by climate change impacts on the basis of their existing policies.82 In those cases, it is often overlooked that the customary homeowners’ comprehensive insurance does not cover damage caused by heavy flooding.

81 GDV 2016: Die 7 größten Irrtümer über den Versicherungsschutz gegen Naturgefahren.
https://www.gdv.de/de/themen/news/die-7-groessten-irrtuemer-ueber-den-versicherungsschutz-gegen-naturgefahren-13806
82 SBI – Sustainable Business Institute e. V. 2010: Herausforderung Klimakompetenz – Kundenerwartungen an Finanzdienstleister – Ergebnisse einer Befragung von Privat- und Geschäftskunden. In Zusammenarbeit mit
dem „Finanz-Forum: Klimawandel“ im Rahmen des vom BMBF geförderten Projekts „CFI – Climate Change, Financial Markets and Innovation“. 20 pp.
www.cfi21.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Herausforderung_Klimakompetenz.pdf
I - The representative population survey (of German-speaking residents aged 14 or more years) entitled Environmental Awareness and Behaviour in Germany (Umweltbewusstsein und -verhalten in Deutschland) has been carried out every two years since 2000 on behalf of the BMU and the UBA. Since 2012, additional questions have been asked in the survey, intended to supply data for DAS monitoring indicators; from 2016 onwards, these questions are asked every four years in the environmental awareness surveys.

 

Interfaces

BAU-I-5: Claims expenditure for property insurance

BS-R-1: Information on how to act in a disaster situation

HUE-1: Manageability of climate change impacts

 

 

 

Objectives

Increasing clients’ and authorities’ awareness of climate-related interconnections and creating financial stimuli by means of appropriate contract design on the part of insurance companies (DAS, ch. 3.2.10)