Background and Goals
The project is supporting the EU (European Union) in developing a post-2012 climate policy (post Kyoto 2012), in defining a European mitigation strategy to achieve the TU climate target for the year 2020 (20% reduction in greenhouse gases, 20% renewable energies, 20% improvement in energy efficiency), and in developing new adaptation strategies for Europe with specific focus on the role of extreme weather events. The project thus contributes to improving the understanding of synergies, interactions and conflicts between the policy strategies for adaptation and mitigation.
- Mecklenburg Western Pomerania
- Lower Saxony
- Rhineland Palatinate
Steps in the process of adaptation to climate change
Step 1: Understand and describe climate change
Four scenarios for global change will be analysed, covering a range of possible future climates - from a 2°C stabilisation scenario (prioritising mitigation) to a 4°C warming scenario (where effect and adaptation costs could be crucial). The IPCC emission scenarios (SRES) A1 and A2 will be the basis.
- Higher average temperatures
- short term = next year’s / decades
Step 2a: Identify and assess risks - climate effects and impact
The socio-economic consequences of EU climate policies for mitigation and adaptation will be analysed.
Step 2b: Identify and assess risks - Vulnerability, risks and chances
Development of a quantitative knowledge base on the vulnerability of Europe to climate change. Therefor analysis of social, technical and environmental factors that influence adaptation capacity, particularly in respect of the changes caused by the occurrence of extreme weather events.
Studies on the urgency of climate protection strategies to achieve the European 2°C target, i.e. limiting climate change to a global temperature increase of 2°C.
Step 3: Develop and compare measures
The objective of the project is the development of political strategies for climate protection (mitigation) and adaptation to climate change. This involves analysis of which EU climate policy mitigation and adaptation strategies are capable of limiting global temperature increases to 2°C in a socially and economically acceptable way. Existing EU climate policies will be assessed and new and innovative policy concepts developed. The objective is a strategic assessment and estimation of climate effects, costs of damage and the adaptation options for EU climate protection policy. This is done by identifying the costs and the effectiveness of these policies and comparing them with a 4°C increase scenario. In addition, a portfolio of long-term strategic policy options and a "policy appraisal framework" will be developed, which will incorporate all of the responsible stakeholders in Europe and will enable decision makers to analyse the effectiveness of various strategic policy options.
- 2071–2100 (far future)
EU's 6th Framework Programme for Research
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia (Great Britain)
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Science
University of East Anglia