Risks and potential for adaptation

UBA information film on Risks and potential for adaptation
Source: KomPass/Umweltbundesamt

UBA information film on Risks and potential for adaptation

What are the risks associated with the effects of climate change in Germany? What are the options for adaptation? What areas require immediate action? The Climate Impact and Risk Assessment 2021 (KWRA) – the most comprehensive risk and impact analysis for Germany to date – provides answers to these questions.

Table of Contents

 

The essentials in brief - What do the results of the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment 2021 show?

1. All living beings and systems in Germany are affected by climate change, but there are spatial and temporal differences.

2. Climate change threatens natural systems, resources and future generations, in particular. To prevent cascading effects, we must protect these systems.

3. Germany (still) has many options for adaptation. As climate change progresses, additional and, in some cases, more far-reaching adaptation is increasingly necessary. Some risks can be contained only through intensive climate protection.

4. Only immediate action can effectively reduce high climate risks. This is because many responses take several decades to become effective.

Picture gallery: The relationships between climate impacts

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Spatial factor – where is climate change particularly noticeable?

The KWRA confirms that Germany is affected nationwide by climate change and that this impact will intensify in the future. However, the specific effects differ spatially. So-called climatic hotspot maps reveal areas in Germany that are particularly affected by climate change.

A map of Germany shows regions with many climate extremes in the future or with strong changes in climate parameters relative to today.
Climate hotspots for Germany

The graphic illustrates Germany’s climatic hotspots: maps of extreme values show regions that could be affected by a particularly large number of climatic extremes. Maps of changes show regions with potentially strong changes in climate parameters. The colours illustrate the strength of the impacts: 100% represents maximum impact in a region.
Map basis: © GeoBasis-DE / BKG (2020), © EuroGeographics, Deutscher Wetterdienst, © European Union

Source: KWRA 2021
 

The climatic hotspot maps show that, as climate change progresses, more extremes are expected to occur – particularly in the east and south-west of Germany. Particularly strong climatic changes in relation to the current situation can occur in the south and west of Germany and in the mountains. In the future, there is a greater risk in the coastal regions due to the accelerated rise in sea levels. Water bodies and their surroundings will be more severely affected by flood and low water events. In the event of severe climate change, the high level of impact will spread to the whole of Germany by the end of the century.

 

Picture gallery: Climate area types and climate analogies

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Climate change risks – what are the biggest dangers

The participating German authorities and experts evaluated the level of climate risk for the 102 climate impacts and 13 action fields of the German adaptation strategy (DAS). The KWRA makes clear that many areas of life are already affected by climate change. In the future, the climate risks can increase significantly – especially if no climate protection or adaptation measures are taken.

Natural systems and resources such as soil, water, species and ecosystems face particular threats. They are the foundations of many other systems, such as fishing, agriculture, forestry, and water management, not to mention many forms of human recreation. To prevent negative cascading effects on economic systems and human health and enable sustainability, it is critical that we protect natural systems and resources.

High climate risks are expected, for example, due to the shifting of cultivation regions, the appearance of new pests, damages to ecosystems such as forests and moors, or heat stress in humans.

The table shows the climate risks without adaptation in 13 action fields. By the end of the century, the risk will increase significantly in all areas of activity.
Overview of climate risks without adaptation in the action fields

The graphic shows the climate risks for each action field. It displays the risks without further adaptation for the present (left) alongside the risks for the middle of the century (middle) and for the end of the century (right). The risk was examined in two future scenarios, i.e. weaker and stronger climate change.

Source: KWRA 2021
 

On the basis of the climate risk and adaptation period, the KWRA identifies 31 climate impacts that have a very urgent need for action. They can be assigned to the following key challenges:

  • Health risks from heat, especially in urban areas near the Rhine and Spree.
  • Risks from drought and low water (often combined with heat) for all water-using and water-dependent systems. Here, rural regions are particularly affected, primarily in the dry regions in the east and in the western centre of Germany.
  • Risks from heavy rain, flash floods and flooding for infrastructures and buildings, especially along bodies of water. Settlements in narrow valleys in the low mountain range show a significantly higher risk.
  • Risks from the gradual rise in temperature and sea level for natural systems and systems that use nature.
Four central challenges for adapting to climate change in Germany
Four central challenges for adapting to climate change in Germany
Source: Adelphi
 

Adaptation potential – what can we do?

The evaluation of the adaptation options shows the degree to which we can reduce individual risks through adaptation. The KWRA makes a distinction between APAIII+ measures and more far-reaching adaptation action (APAIII+ refers to the federal government’s current action plan, APA III). More far-reaching adaptation goes beyond the APAIII+ measures, but can also be used under today’s conditions. The APAIII+ measures can reduce the climate risks – at least in some instances – but only slightly. In the pessimistic case, i.e. with stronger climate change, more far-reaching adaptation is required to significantly reduce the climate risks.

In addition, there are climate risks where adaptation is already reaching its absolute limits in the present and near future and where high climate risks can only be avoided through climate protection – for example the effects of climate change on mountain ecosystems.

A table of climate risks with adaptation is shown. By the middle of the century, the risk can be reduced to low to medium (high) through extensive adjustments.
Climate risks with adaptation in the action fields

The graphic shows the climate risks in the action fields with and without adaptation for the middle of the century. It presents the risks without adaptation (left) next to the risks with adaptation, through APAIII+ measures (centre) and through more far-reaching adaptation (right). The climate risk with adaptation was examined for the case of weaker and stronger climate change.

Source: KWRA 2021
 

Conclusion - What do the results mean for Germany?

The results of the KWRA make it clear:

  1. Many climate risks can be significantly reduced in Germany through adaptation, but in the event of severe climate change, the climate risks can only be sufficiently mitigated through more far-reaching action. Climate protection is the basis for effective adaptation, and in some cases the only way to reduce risks.
  2. Climate adaptation takes time. Many high climate risks require an adaptation period of several decades, some even more than 50 years (e.g. forest conversion). To prepare Germany for severe climate change, early action is necessary.
  3. The greatest and most urgent need for action relates to natural systems and resources. On the one hand, they are exposed to particularly high climate risks and, on the other hand, they have comparatively little potential for adaptation. For these reasons, sustainable management and a reduction in the pollution of natural systems and resources are the main starting points for adaptation.
 

Background – What is the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment 2021?

The Climate Impact and Risk Assessment 2021 (KWRA) was commissioned by the federal government as part of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (DAS). The results of the KWRA serve as a foundation for the improvement of the DAS and the development of future adaptation action. In this way, the KWRA supports the formulation of concrete adaptation action in the next Adaptation Action Plan (APA IV).

The KWRA 2021 represents the most comprehensive analysis of the risks and impacts of climate change in Germany. It is a systematic, cross-sectoral analysis and assessment of the effects of climate change and answers the following questions:

  1. How will climate change affect the environment, our livelihoods, our health, our everyday lives and our economy?
  2. Where can we reduce the risks of climate change through adaptation?
  3. What areas require urgent action?

The KWRA identifies urgent needs for action by identifying high climate risks and analysing the adaptive capacity and the adaptation period. To this end, a scientific consortium, together with 180 experts from 25 federal authorities and other institutions, analysed 102 climate impacts in 13 action fields. Building on this, the network of authorities assessed the respective climate risk in relation to the present, the two future periods of mid-century (2031-2060) and the end of the century (2071-2100). The KWRA considers a pessimistic case (stronger climate change) and an optimistic case (weaker climate change). The study relied on climate projection data from the German Weather Service. These data are based on the modelling of different greenhouse gas-concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The KWRA used the projections of the climate scenario RCP8.5, which is the scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that has the highest greenhouse gas concentrations. The project also analysed the interactions between the individual climate impacts and susceptible systems and identified cascading effects. The methodology of the KWRA is based on the analysis of climate impact chains and ISO 14091. Based on this, methodical recommendations for action were developed for municipalities.

The methodology of the KWRA 2021 was significantly refined compared to that of the analysis from 2015. The study took more climate impacts into account. The results confirm the 2015 analysis, but make clear that many climate risks have increased.

 

Picture gallery: KWRA methodology

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