Field of Action Tourism

Beach chairs at the Baltic SeaClick to enlarge
Climate change affects tourism which depends on weather and climate.
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Impacts of Climate Change

Table of Contents

 

Impact of climate change on winter tourism

Climate scenarios for various destinations predict an increase in winter temperatures of 1.8°C by 2050 compared to 1990. In addition, precipitation at medium altitudes will fall more frequently in the form of rain instead of snow. As a result, the amount of snowfall will decrease, which in turn will affect snow cover and the number of snow days. This ultimately causes a decrease in natural snow guarantee, which is an important prerequisite for the economic success of a winter tourism holiday region.

Ski tourism (e.g. alpine skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing) is the winter tourism activity most affected by climate change. The loss of the natural snow guarantee can be accompanied by significant restrictions in the skiing offer and in some cases by its disappearance. At low altitudes, climate change causes a later start and earlier end of the season and thus leads to a shorter season overall. This can lead to economic losses. Cross-country skiing is also subject to the risk of little or no snowfall in individual years, which may make the activity impossible in the long term.

By the end of the 21st century, it is expected that alpine winter sports will no longer be possible in the low mountain ranges. Presumably, there will still be snow-sure ski resorts at the end of the 21st century if they are equipped with appropriate snow-making facilities. However, this is associated with a significantly higher snowmaking effort. For other activities (e. g. winter walks, hikes), on the other hand, snow is merely a condition that contributes to the attractiveness of a holiday destination. A reduction in the natural snow guarantee therefore does not directly lead to a restriction of these offers. In coastal regions, the presence of a "winter atmosphere" with low temperatures is beneficial to tourism.

Indicators from the DAS monitoring: Snow cover for winter sports | Bed nights in ski resorts

 

Impacts on summer tourism

Summer tourism is mainly influenced by the climate factors air temperature, water temperature, sunshine duration and precipitation. Based on existing scenarios, rising temperatures, lower precipitation and a lengthening of the summer season generally improve the climatic conditions for summer tourism. The individual types of summer tourism differ in their climatic demands and the degree of dependency. In addition, the effects depend strongly on the geographical location of the holiday region.

Bathing and beach tourism is likely to benefit from rising air temperatures, longer sunshine duration, lower summer precipitation, an extension of the summer period and an increase in surface water temperatures. A negative effect could be an accompanying deterioration in the water quality of bathing waters (e.g. due to "algae blooms"). Longer-term bathing bans would harm bathing and beach tourism. Risks also arise from an increase in heat days, which can lead to heat stress among vulnerable groups of people (e. g. older people, small children). Longer dry periods can affect the water level in bathing areas and thus restrict bathing opportunities. The intensification of tourist use can also lead to increased pressure on sensitive coastal ecosystems.

The activities of hiking, nordic walking and strolling are practised by many recreation-seekers during their summer holidays. Throughout the year, the climatic conditions for these activities will improve overall. Especially the spring and autumn seasons will become more attractive. The increase in sunshine duration is primarily responsible for this. Due to the pleasant climate in the mountains, an increase in mountain and alpine tourism (e. g. mountain hiking, climbing, high mountain tours) is expected. The guest and accommodation establishments will benefit from this. Impairments may occur during extended hikes due to heavy thunderstorms. The increase in natural hazards such as avalanches, rockfalls and landslides, caused by heavy precipitation and the thawing of permafrost at higher altitudes, poses a threat to mountain and high-mountain hiking and climbing. In addition, this can damage hiking trails, paths, mountain huts and cable car and lift facilities.

Many of the protected landscape areas in Germany (e. g. national parks, biosphere reserves, nature reserves and landscape conservation areas) are of great importance for tourism and offer special nature experience programmes (e. g. guided tours, nature trails). With regard to climate change, it is expected that this protected area tourism will also find improved framework conditions due to the increase in temperature and an extended season, which will favour the stay in nature. Negative effects are expected here, among other things, through the loss of biodiversity as well as impairments to the experience of nature through weather extremes.

Bike tourism (e. g. bicycling, mountain biking) is one of the most popular types of holiday in summer, along with bathing and hiking tourism. Here, too, an extension of the season has a fundamentally positive effect. The spring and autumn seasons in particular become more attractive. Bike tourists can be affected by heavy rainfall events and longer periods of heat. For example, hot days can limit the usual distances cycled per day and lead to health problems. In the case of mountain biking, heavy rainfall also poses the risk of landslides and falling rocks.

For water sports activities (e. g. canoeing, white water rafting and sailing), the influence of climate change on the water bodies and especially the water depth is of particular relevance. Since all rivers and lakes are only navigated when water levels are suitable, a low water level due to a decrease in summer precipitation endangers the sporting activity as a whole. In shallow waters, the risk of grounding or sediment resuspension also increases, which can lead to increased ecological impacts.

With regard to the effects of climate change on golf tourism, it is assumed that climate change will probably extend the golf season overall. However, depending on the region, significant problems are expected due to drought stress, which may cause significant damage to turf vegetation. The water demand of the lawns is correspondingly high in hot summer periods.

Indicators from the DAS monitoring: Coastal bathing temperatures, bed nights in coastal tourist areas

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Impacts on health tourism

Health tourism is travel that focuses on medical treatments and health services. The purpose of the stay is physical and psychological prevention or the restoration of health. The offers concentrate on health resorts, spas and fitness and wellness facilities. Their offers include preventive and rehabilitation cures, compact cures and follow-up rehabilitation measures, health and wellness holidays, recreation, sports and leisure. Health tourism in Germany is generally considered to have a high potential for the future, partly due to increased health awareness. The expected climatic changes can have both positive and negative effects on the many facets of health tourism. Health tourism could be strengthened by climate change, as the majority of offers are indoor offers and here the climate risks for people are significantly lower, especially compared to heat stress. On the other hand, wellness offers based on indoor and thermal pools may lose their attractiveness in summer due to rising temperatures, for example compared to other offered activities such as bathing, cycling or walking. At the same time, a spatial shift of demand to higher and thus cooler locations or a revival of the classic "summer freshness" is possible, a development from which the alpine wellness provider sector would benefit if attractive offers were provided that are tailored to the needs of "heat-stressed" city dwellers. In the case of outdoor health tourism activities, the increase in heat days or abrupt weather changes could lead to possible restrictions for tourists. In particular, older people with health problems, but also people who are active in sports, may be at risk during hot periods in the summer months or abrupt weather changes. Other climatic influences affecting health tourism are related to the water quality at sea beaches and inland waters, which must meet certain hygiene requirements. Furthermore, bioclimatic factors such as UV exposure or air hygiene can be influenced by climate change, for example through changes in radiation intensities and pollen flight times. The spread of allergens, such as various types of pollen that trigger or aggravate hay fever and/or asthma, could have a limiting effect on the supply of health tourism.

Indicators from the DAS monitoring: Heat stress in spas used for their healthy climate

 

Damage to tourism infrastructures and business interruptions

Extreme weather events such as heavy rain, storms, storm surges, high and low water can lead to damage to tourism infrastructures (e. g. hiking and cycling trails, roads, water and winter sports infrastructures) and to interruptions in the operation of tourism facilities (e.g. accommodation establishments, inns). This affects all tourism regions and types in Germany. In coastal regions, strong storms and storm surges can lead to business interruptions as well as damage to port and beach infrastructures, beach closures and even the disappearance of entire beaches. Heavy rainfall events favour landslides on steep coasts, which can also lead to damage to tourist infrastructures. Interruptions of bathing activities can occur due to harmful microorganisms whose growth benefits from high water temperatures and nutrient levels. As a result of river floods, restrictions on operations and damage to cycle paths and hiking trails, hotels and restaurants as well as roads and railways can occur in flooded areas. In addition, low water can lead to selective restrictions on tourist navigation and water sports. Storm damage may result in warnings and closures of paths through forests and woodlands. In this context, forest fires should also be mentioned as risk factors. In mountain regions, avalanches and landslides may damage important infrastructure facilities for winter tourism such as ski lift masts, mountain railway stations, avalanche barriers and traffic routes. For small and medium-sized enterprises in particular, business interruptions and damage to infrastructures can threaten their existence in terms of running costs.

 

Impacts on the demand

If the climate and weather patterns in a tourism region change, this can lead to changes in the demand for certain tourism services in the long term and in the short term. Rapid reactions to long-term climatic changes are currently not to be expected. In the short term, higher weather variability and more frequent extreme weather events, which can be accompanied by business interruptions, tend to have a lowering effect on the demand. Depending on how weather patterns influence the decision to go on holiday, short to medium-term climatic changes can lead to a trip being postponed (temporal shift in demand), a trip being taken to another holiday region (spatial shift in demand) or an alternative tourist offer being taken up (segmental shift in demand). For example, a lack of natural snowfall with long-term decreasing periods of snow cover in certain regions can reduce the tourist demand for skiing. Ski tourists have the following options: Skiing only in seasonal periods with sufficient snow, choosing another ski area or choosing another activity instead of skiing.

On the German coasts and inland waters, the increase in air and water temperature, especially in the early and late summer months, could lead to an increase in demand for beach and bathing tourism in the short to medium term. Instead, sea level rise and the overlap of periods of high storm intensity with the holiday season may have a negative impact on tourism demand in the long term. In view of the projected increase in heat stress in summer, there tends to be an increase in demand for tourism offers in cooler regions during the hottest season, which could benefit not only the coastal regions but also the low mountain ranges. In connection with the loss of attractiveness of the classic bathing destinations in the Mediterranean region due to summer temperatures of partly over 40°C, there may be a shift of summer tourism from southern regions to Germany.

In view of the complexity of travel decisions, statements on future changes in demand due to climate change are associated with great uncertainty. In the interaction of all influencing factors (e.g. economic situation, travel motives, preferences of holidaymakers, changes in supply, mobility requirements and costs) on tourism demand, the influence of climate change will play a rather subordinate role in the coming years.

Indicators from the DAS monitoring: Seasonal bed nights in German tourist areas | Holiday destination preferences

Adaptation to Climate Change

Adaptation of winter tourism

In the low mountain ranges and lower-lying areas of the Alps, a significant decline in snow guarantee in winter sports areas has been observed over the last 50 years with rising air temperatures and changes in precipitation. In general, different strategies of adaptation to decreasing snow guarantee can be considered: physical, technical and social (behavioural) adaptation.

Physical adaptation: One option of physical adaptation would be a shift of ski tourism to higher snow-sure ski areas. This option would mean that ski slopes, cable cars and chairlifts would also have to "grow" with it. However, this strategy faces some obstacles. The climate change scenarios assume wetter winters, which mean heavier snowfall at higher altitudes. This should make the higher-altitude ski areas even more snow-sure. However, the additional snow is also likely to increase the risk of avalanches, leading to disruptions or interruptions in skiing operations. From an economic point of view, the expansion of existing ski areas to higher altitudes is associated with high costs. In addition, ecosystems at higher altitudes are particularly sensitive. Here, there may be resistance from environmental and nature conservation associations. The option of skiing on other continents is not justifiable, as air travel is associated with high climate-damaging emissions.

Technical adaptation: Technical adaptation to decreasing snow guarantee includes snowmaking facilities with storage reservoirs including the pipelines that supply these facilities, all types of lift facilities (e.g. chair and ski lifts, cable cars) as well as special technical measures such as cloud seeding and snow protection. Technical snowmaking on ski slopes is now becoming increasingly important for many ski resorts in Germany. However, artificial snowmaking can only counteract the lack of snow to a limited extent, as temperatures below 4° Celsius and sufficient water are usually required for this. In many German ski resorts in low mountain ranges, this temperature limit will probably be reached less frequently in the future. The complex installation and the very water- and energy-intensive operation of snow-making systems also increase the costs for ski resorts. In addition, artificial snowmaking is associated with major ecological disadvantages, such as increasing water and energy consumption. To ensure the water supply for snow production, water storage basins or artificial lakes are built in the mountains. Their construction has a negative impact on the environment and nature, as new roads have to be built to facilitate access to such heights. The constructed reservoirs are also vulnerable to flooding, rockfalls and avalanches. The water bound in the artificial snow accumulates as meltwater in spring, which could increase flooding. Snowmaking should only be considered as a transitional measure to adapt to climate change. In addition, various strategies are used to extend the duration of snow cover on ski slopes. For example, their useful life can be extended through wind protection and shading. Through daily maintenance and cleaning of the slopes in winter, additional days can be gained thanks to the higher albedo value of the snow. In snow farming, snow fences are installed to prevent new snow from blowing away and to collect it. There is also the option of protecting existing snow from heat with special textiles so that it remains available for longer. In some regions of northern Europe, different underground storage techniques are used to preserve snow for several months and from one season to the next. Finally, cloud seeding can be used as a technical option, whereby chemical reagents are injected into the clouds to force a snowfall.

Social (behavioural) adaptation: In addition to physical and technological adaptation options, behavioural adaptation strategies in winter tourism also come into question. These range from the acceptance of artificial snow and alternative offers, operational practices and financial instruments to a diversification of tourism offers. The acceptance of artificial snow depends both on the willingness of tourists to share the costs of artificial snow and on their attitude towards artificial snow slopes in the midst of a snow-free landscape. It also requires the acceptance of a shorter season and other activities not necessarily linked to snow. As far as operational practices are concerned, it would be possible here for ski area operators to change the modalities of season design as well as the opening and closing dates of ski slopes. Snow insurance can be considered as a financial instrument to protect snow area operators from financial losses. Losses can occur if much less snow falls during a season than on average. For many ski resorts, diversification of the tourism offer, i.e. a change in the tourism offer from snow-dependent winter sports to an alternative offer, is a strategy to deal with potentially occurring climate changes. For many winter tourism destinations, a growth potential for health and adventure tourism is seen here. The offer includes winter walks and hikes, sports, fitness and wellness offers as indoor activities as well as the expansion of cultural offers (e. g. concerts, exhibitions) and the marketing of regional products.

Adaptation of summer tourism

For summer tourism, generally applicable adaptation strategies and options are difficult to identify, as the impacts of climate change on summer holidays and the different types are very complex.

One challenge with regard to coastal bathing and beach tourism is increasing storm surges and the erosion of coastal sections. This can be countered with an early warning system that informs tourism providers, tourists and residents in time about possible extreme weather events. Tourist infrastructure facilities can be protected with dikes and bulkheads within the framework of risk management concepts and thus made storm- and flood-proof. Other adaptation options can be buildings on stilts or moving sensitive infrastructure back inland. Sand erosion on beaches can be technically remedied. In order to maintain good water quality, protection of seas and bathing waters is required under the EC Bathing Water Directive. For the larger lakes, adaptation strategies tend not to be necessary. In regions where bathing tourism is negatively affected by a significant reduction of the water level (e. g. due to prolonged dry periods), pools represent an adaptation strategy. In the case of smaller bathing lakes that warm up considerably more, health-related pressures (e. g. due to algal blooms) can be countered by appropriate adaptation measures, such as avoiding nutrient inputs from agriculture and banning the feeding of ducks. In extreme cases, temporary bathing bans can be imposed. In order to avoid health impacts at warmed water bodies, water monitoring and communication of potential impacts are of particular importance.

In the field of hiking tourism, behavioural adaptation measures are required for hiking, nordic walking and strolling. Hiking in very hot weather (e. g. temperatures above 30°C) should generally be avoided for health reasons. Otherwise, as an adaptation strategy in hot weather, plan to walk in areas with a lot of shade (e. g. forest) or near a river or lake instead of in the open countryside. Forests not only provide shade, they also cool you down through evaporation. Hikes should also be avoided at the hottest times of the day (usually in the afternoon). Other options include: drinking enough, using sunscreen with a high sun protection factor to protect against UV radiation, wearing sunglasses, headgear and long-sleeved clothing. In the field of mountain hiking, climbing and high mountain tours, there are also many suggestions for adaptation strategies that can help to improve safety in the mountains under the conditions of climate change. These include measures and appropriate behaviours that concern the guest himself (e. g. careful planning of hikes and tours, use of appropriate and up-to-date maps and information material, use of a helmet, carrying a mobile phone). Furthermore, it is important to avoid risks that can be caused by heavy rainfall events, such as small-scale flooding, landslides and mudflows.

With regard to adaptation strategies in bike tourism, a distinction must be made between mountain biking and long-distance cycling. When developing mountain bike routes, the changed framework conditions in connection with climate change, in particular erosion hazards due to mudflows, landslides and rockfalls, must be considered. Due to heavy rainfall events, a comparably high expenditure for the rehabilitation and maintenance of bike lanes is otherwise to be expected here. For safety reasons, it may be necessary to temporarily close lanes. Further measures include the creation of special risk maps and improved markings and signs. In the case of long-distance cycle routes, it is important to increase protection against heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and heat by providing appropriate infrastructure. Resorts can adapt to the increased heat stress by shading the bike infrastructures. Since complete shading of existing bike lanes is possible at most in places and only at great expense, existing natural conditions can be used instead by relocating the course of the bike lanes to shady terrain (e. g. forest and woodland areas) or alleys. In addition to the bike lanes, the planning should also take into account sun-exposed places where tourists spend longer periods of time (e. g. picnic areas, benches, viewing areas). Trees, structural measures or a mixture of both (e. g. a green sun canopy) can be used as shading elements to increase the quality of stay. An advantage of a permanently installed sunshade can be that it can also be used as a shelter during a storm with high precipitation.

In the field of water sports tourism, canoeists can react to the increasing periods of low water by switching to other rivers and water bodies in other regions. There is also potential for adaptation measures through river restoration, such as the dismantling of a weir system or the removal of bank constructions, if this creates continuous passability or if the route becomes interesting for canoe slalom. Technical adaptation measures include artificial route or whitewater facilities where the conditions in the facility (change of speed and course) can be adapted to the athletes with the help of pumps or inflows. These facilities are not subject to natural fluctuations and can be an alternative during prolonged low water levels. Sailing may also require adaptation measures if it is a water body where low water levels occur frequently (e.g. shallow lakes). Since the centreboard is needed to steer the sailing boats, frequently occurring low water levels cannot be compensated. In this case, measures proposed are to dredge exit routes and areas of the sailing boat harbours deeper or to exclude certain boat classes.

Adaptation strategies and measures in golf tourism are particularly necessary where golf courses and golf resorts are exposed to drought stress. Possible adaptation strategies relate in particular to golf course maintenance and irrigation. To minimise stress on turf plants, turf maintenance is adjusted during heat and dry periods and mowing heights are increased to avoid heat damage to plants. To reduce water demands, lawn varieties can be selected that are more heat and drought tolerant and have lower water demands. Landscaping with trees and shrubs can also have a positive influence because shading can keep the surface temperature lower. The most important adaptation strategy for golf tourism is still considered to be irrigation systems and an increase in the permissible amounts of abstraction from ground or surface waters. An alternative is the construction of storage ponds for the irrigation of golf courses with rainwater. Irrigation that is as sustainable as possible requires continuous observation and recording of weather conditions, soil moisture as well as the maintenance measures that have been carried out, in order to be able to determine the irrigation amounts in line with demand as much as possible. Possible adaptation strategies also involve raising awareness among providers and users.

Adaptation of health tourism

Since the majority of health tourism offers are indoor offers, the climate risks (especially in relation to heat stress) are significantly lower. If the heat stress increases, air conditioning and cooling of buildings used for health tourism may become necessary as an adaptation measure. Due to the negative environmental balance of air conditioning systems, the high energy costs and the greater risk of failure compared to structural measures, this measure is not recommended. Instead, alternatives for cooling buildings and dealing with heat should be used. Various structural measures (e.g. thermal insulation, use of light-coloured building materials and colours), green measures (e.g. green roofs and facades) and organisational measures (e.g. information and advice on heat prevention, heat-adapted behaviour by choosing the right clothes, a sufficiently large fluid intake) can be used against the overheating of buildings in summer. In summer, indoor activities such as wellness and fitness training may well become less attractive due to rising temperatures, for example compared to swimming in the sea and lakes or other activities on offer such as cycling and hiking. For the outdoor activities of health tourism, adaptation options come into question, as they do for the different types of summer tourism.

Adaptation of tourism infrastructures

Extreme weather events such as heat and drought periods, heavy rain, floods and low water as well as storms and storm surges can have an impact on tourism infrastructure. Possible adaptation measures differ depending on the region and type of tourism. In coastal regions, flood dikes protect not only the population but also tourist facilities from storm surges. Weather conditions that lead to flooding can result in greater water level fluctuations at inland lakes and rivers. Water-bound infrastructures such as footbridges may be flooded more often or become inaccessible on the water side at low water levels, thus restricting bathing and the use of boats and canoes. As an adaptation measure, floating footbridges can be an alternative to fixed jetties. Due to heavy rainfall events and the melting of permafrost, erosion phenomena are increasingly to be expected in mountain regions, which can lead to damage to cable car installations, lift pylons, as well as hotel and restaurant buildings, and which can possibly only be re-fixed and rehabilitated at great financial expense.

Landslides and rockfalls also cause damage to hiking trails and bike lanes. In order to prepare for these developments and to provide the safest possible bike and hiking infrastructure for users, various preventive measures can be taken: the removal of loose rock on and above the affected paths, ongoing removal of damaged areas, the installation of safety measures such as rockfall nets or retaining walls, the adaptation of path surfaces with asphalt surfaces that withstand floods better than water-bound surfaces, the temporary closure or abandonment of paths for safety reasons, the designation of alternative routes, the installation of information boards, the monitoring of critical points and the establishment of an early warning system. With regard to heat stress, the shading of existing bike and hiking path infrastructures by trees and tall shrubs as well as heat-free path guidance are important adaptation measures.

Adaptation to (changed) demand

In tourism, clear statements on future changes in demand due to climate change and on corresponding adaptation measures to a changed demand are currently still associated with great uncertainties. One reason for this on the demand side is the complexity of a travel decision, which depends on many factors (e. g. individual preferences, socio-demographic and economic factors). Accordingly, it is difficult to assess travel decisions in advance or to control them in a targeted manner. This also makes controlling interventions in terms of climate adaptation on the demand side considerably more difficult. At this point in time, it can be assumed that the influence of climate change on travel decisions plays a rather subordinate role in the overall context of the numerous factors that influence tourism demand.

Nevertheless, tourism stakeholders are already confronted with regional changes in demand due to climate change on a small scale and will be increasingly so in the future. This applies in particular to activities that cannot be carried out during extreme weather events (e. g. boat rentals, tree climbing trails), destinations with a very special and at the same time weather-sensitive offer, destinations with weather-sensitive accessibility (e. g. islands that cannot be reached during storms) and destinations with an increased risk of being affected by extreme events (e. g. towns and cities on river courses at risk of flooding). For these providers and locations, it is already the case and will increasingly be the case in the future that they must prepare themselves at an early stage for the climate change-related challenges ahead by taking suitable adaptation measures.